After April's hot CPI print, Kalshi traders forecast 2026 inflation to peak at 4.8%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released new figures showing consumer prices rose 3.8% year over year in April, the highest rate since May 2023 and 0.1 percentage points above the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

In the aftermath of today’s report, traders are forecasting inflation to reach a high of 4.8% this year on Kalshi's inflation market.

Prices rose broadly across categories, coming in above economist expectations on an annual basis.

CNBC reported that energy prices jumped 3.8%, accounting for more than 40% of the headline gain, while food prices climbed 0.5%. The gasoline index increased 28.4% annually. Shelter costs also rose 0.6% after easing in prior months, and tariff-sensitive categories including apparel and airline fares moved higher.

Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.4% for the month and 2.8% annually, keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Real average hourly wages declined 0.5% for the month and 0.3% year over year, meaning inflation is currently outpacing wage growth.

Following the report, traders raised the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end to around 30%, according to CME Group data cited by CNBC.

Traders are now predicting inflation could climb even higher when the next CPI report is released on June 10. Kalshi's inflation market currently forecasts a 4.3% year-over-year reading for May, with a 77% chance inflation comes in above 4.1% and a 61% chance it clears 4.2%.

Kalshi markets now predict:

Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}