The 114th Australian Open is just around the corner, with main draw play kicking off on Sunday, January 18. To up the ante, the 2026 tournament will offer a record AUD 111.5 million (USD 74.9 million) prize pool. And Kalshi traders are already pricing in this year’s potential winners.
Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) is currently the market favorite to win the next Australian Open, trading at 32¢. 2025 women’s singles winner Madison Keys (USA), who has endured significant lower-body injuries, is not on Kalshi’s leaderboard.
On the men’s side, Kalshi sees Jannik Sinner (ITA), who won here in 2024 and 2025, as the most likely champion of the upcoming tournament. Sinner boasts a 51% winning likelihood to earn his third consecutive win at the AO, and with his recent dominance in Melbourne, that clip is tough to dispute.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
As noted, Aryna Sabalenka (32%) is the women’s favorite in 2026 after narrowly falling short of a three-peat in 2025. Sabalenka suffered a tough upset to Keys in three sets at Rod Laver Arena. She will certainly use that as fuel going forward, as she is once again at the top of her game, and did well to win the US Open last September.
Behind the 27-year-old Belarusian, Kalshi’s traders are also keen on Iga Swiatek (POL), who is priced by Kalshi’s traders at 16¢ to win her first Australian Open title. Swiatek has yet to reach the AO’s championship match. Still, the 24-year managed an impressive title win at Wimbledon last summer, which now gives her three legs of the Grand Slam throughout her career.
From there, Amanda Anisimova (USA) is the only other female competitor with a winning probability of 10% or better. She has yet to earn a title in Melbourne (or any of the Grand Slams), but she reached the finals at the most recent Wimbledon and US Open.
Elena Rybakina (KAZ) finished as the runner-up at the AO’s 2023 installment. Rybakina is now trading at nine cents, but she reached as high as 12¢ at Kalshi on January 2.
Coco Gauff (USA) is another fan favorite, however, she fell to as low as five cents prior to New Year’s Eve. Currently, Gauff is tagged with an 8% likelihood, but she has never qualified for the final match in Australia.
Kalshi’s markets indicate that Jannik Sinner is the favorite to win his third consecutive Australian Open championship. He is currently priced at 51¢. Sinner peaked here back on December 30, when he displayed a 60% winning likelihood.
Subsequently, Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) is viewed quite respectably in this market, displaying a price of 36¢. The 22-year-old Alcaraz has already won multiple titles at Roland Garros (2024, 2025), Wimbledon (2023, 2024) and Flushing Meadows (2022, 2025). Still, he’s never advanced further than the quarterfinals in Melbourne. Can Alcaraz use the momentum from his recent US Open win to complete the famed quartet?
Even at the twilight age of 38, Novak Djokovic (SRB) is still the AO’s undisputed king. Djokovic’s 10 titles at Rod Laver Arena are an all-time record that likely won’t be broken any time soon. His most recent championship here came in 2023, and Kalshi is now indicating a seven-percent chance that he adds No. 11. Djokovic still has some juice left, as he reached the quarterfinals in all four major tournaments last year.
Alexander Zverev (GER), the Australian Open’s reigning runner-up, is the only other male competitor trading above two cents at this time. The 6-foot-6 Zverev reflects a 4% probability to avenge last season’s championship loss (being swept in three sets by Sinner). His price rose to eight cents on December 31, but since then, has fallen by 50%.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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