The 98th Academy Awards are almost here. This Sunday (March 15), most of Hollywood will descend on the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California. But who will depart with an Oscar?
Kalshi has markets related to all of this year’s Academy Awards. However, in the market for Best Actress, Kalshi’s traders are quite confident in Jessie Buckley’s chances.
Best Actress
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
Buckley currently has a 97% chance of taking home the Academy Award for her performance as “Agnes Shakespeare” in Hamnet. She is well ahead of her fellow nominees Rose Byrne, Emma Stone, Kate Hudson, and Renate Reinsve.
After Buckley, Byrne (4¢) is the only nominee with a probability above one percent.
The market currently has a volume of over $2.5 million.
Buckley, a 36-year-old native of Ireland, has yet to win an Oscar, but she was previously nominated for Best Supporting Actress in 2022 after her work on The Best Daughter. Buckley now appears likely to take home her first Oscar for Hamnet, which received eight nominations.
Best Supporting Actress
Meanwhile, in the market for Best Supporting Actress, Kalshi traders presently price Amy Madigan at 46¢ for her role in Weapons.
However, Teyana Taylor is also viewed as a strong contender for her performance in One Battle After Another, a film with a high probability of winning the Oscar for Best Picture. She currently has a 28% chance of victory.
Taylor peaked at 75¢ on January 27 in this market. From there, Kalshi’s traders labeled the native New Yorker as the frontrunner until earlier this month. Since then, her stock has fallen significantly.
Behind her, Wunmi Mosaku is priced at 20¢ to win for her work in Sinners.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Oscar for Best Actress
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