The 98th annual Academy Awards are set for March 15 at Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California. With the date just a few days away, Kalshi is offering various markets on all of the major categories.
Let’s take a deeper look into what Kalshi traders are predicting for the upcoming Oscars.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
Best Picture
As with most years, the majority of public interest at the Academy Awards surrounds the Oscar for Best Picture. Currently, Kalshi’s traders have One Battle After Another priced as the favorite with a 76% chance of taking home the gold statue.
The film, directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, saw its peak pricing of 85¢ on March 1, but its odds have slightly pulled back since then.
Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has a 24% likelihood of winning the esteemed award. The folk-horror movie grossed nearly $280 million at the U.S. box office. However, it was never priced above 25¢ to win Best Picture despite a strong starring performance from Michael B. Jordan.
After the two favorites, no other film has had more than a five percent chance to win the Oscar for Best Picture. Hamnet (3¢) and Marty Supreme (2¢) are extreme long shots.
Best Actress and Best Actor
Speaking of Hamnet, Jessie Buckley has a 97% chance of winning the Oscar for Best Actress for her portrayal of “Agnes Shakespeare.”
Behind her, Kalshi has Rose Byrne as a far-off second, showing a price of only three cents.
Meanwhile, the Oscar for Best Actor appears to be a closer race on Kalshi. Right now, Timothée Chalamet has a 32% chance of winning for his performance as the title character in Marty Supreme. Michael B. Jordan is currently priced at 58¢ after his showing as “Smoke” in Sinners.
Jordan has surged in the Best Actor market this month. As recently as March 1, he was trading at only 12¢ here. Now, he is the clear favorite heading into Sunday’s ceremony.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Oscar for Best Picture:
Best Actress:
Jessie Buckley: 97%
Best Actor:
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.