Update: Amy Madigan has won the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards, taking home the award for her role as “Aunt Gladys” in Zach Cregger’s Weapons. Madigan entered the ceremony as the market favorite on Kalshi, narrowly ahead of Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku, and ultimately delivered on those expectations when the envelope was opened Sunday night.
The 98th Academy Awards will take place later this evening at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California. With the ceremony just hours away, many of Kalshi’s Oscar markets have received an influx of trading action. In particular, there is an intriguing race brewing around who will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress.
(Click here to see Kalshi’s trading markets for the 98th Academy Awards)
Let’s take a closer look at the market.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
Best Supporting Actress
As of Sunday morning, Amy Madigan has a 52% chance of taking home the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. That pricing also represents Madigan’s market peak, although she has been a favorite since March 2.
For reference, nearly $2.5 million has been traded so far in this market.
Madigan is nominated for her role as “Aunt Gladys” in Zach Cregger’s Weapons, a critical and commercial success that earned almost $270 million at the global box office.
Following Madigan, Teyana Taylor, who is priced at 27¢, is the most likely to be named Best Supporting Actress. The multi-talented actress shined as “Perfidia” in One Battle After Another, which is also the favorite to win the Oscar for Best Picture.
Wunmi Mosaku (22¢), another nominee for Best Supporting Actress, played “Annie” in Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. Like One Battle After Another, the period drama is also seen as a formidable contender for Best Picture.
Best Actress
Meanwhile, in the Best Actress market, Jessie Buckley is priced as a heavy favorite for her role as Agnes in Hamnet.
She is priced at 97%, well ahead of her fellow nominees Rose Byrne, Emma Stone, Kate Hudson, and Renate Reinsve.
After Buckley, Byrne (3¢) is the only nominee with a probability above one percent.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Oscar for Best Supporting Actress:
(Click here to see Kalshi’s trading markets for the 98th Academy Awards)
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.