The Big Game in Santa Clara is nearly upon us, and festivities are already in full swing. Along with that, so is the trading action.
In just a few short days, Seattle and New England will put it all on the line at the pro football championship. As of Wednesday, Kalshi’s Big Game market, which has a volume north of $161 million, gives Seattle a 68% chance of taking home the trophy.
Not trading advice. This article is for informational purposes only. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL or Super Bowl LX.
The 2026 Pro Football Championship
(Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026? See Kalshi’s markets here.)
Sunday’s game will mark the second time that Levi’s Stadium has hosted pro football’s Big Game. Seattle, a team familiar with the venue that belongs to its division rival San Francisco, is making its fourth championship appearance (1-2).
Meanwhile, New England is in the title spot for a record 12th time, and hopes to be the first franchise to earn seven championship trophies.
Of course, Seattle’s most recent trip to the championship (2015) came against New England, albeit under a much different regime. Regardless, the fans, especially those from the Pacific Northwest, have not forgotten about that fateful day in Glendale, AZ, when victory was snatched away in the final seconds. Perhaps we’ll see former cornerback Malcolm Butler in attendance?
As noted, Kalshi’s traders have Seattle priced at 68¢ to defeat New England. An auxiliary Big Game market, “Which Conference wins Championship?,” now reflects identical odds (68%) of a National Conference victory.
Aside from Kansas City, no representative of the American Conference has won the title since New England in 2018. Overall, the NFC holds a narrow advantage, showing a 32-27 record in the Big Game.
Seattle enters this matchup with the league’s top-scoring defense (17.2 PPG) and No. 3 offense (28.4 PPG). Conversely, New England is operating with the No. 4 defense (18.8 PPG) and No. 2 offense (28.8 PPG).
It will be particularly fun to see each of these quarterbacks, Seattle’s Sam Darnold and New England’s Drake Maye, go against the young secondaries on hand. Both defensive backfields are saturated with athletic talent; New England gave up only 193.5 YPG passing, while Seattle was right behind, allowing 193.9 YPG through the air.
The takeaway
Kalshi’s traders are pricing Mike Macdonald’s team as the clear favorite, and have been since January 4.
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Pro football champion:
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