As Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces a looming impeachment threat in the House of Representatives, Kalshi traders now see former Army Secretary Dan Driscoll as the most likely successor, should Hegseth eventually be removed from office or resign.
Kalshi's next defense secretary market puts Driscoll at 26%, followed by the possibility that no successor is named during Trump's second term at 24% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 13%.
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Hegseth’s tenure
Rep. Thomas Massie reintroduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth on Nov. 9, 2026, when the House returned to session. Bloomberg News had reported on Nov. 5 that Massie planned to bring the articles back.
“My Hegseth impeachment resolution is a much gentler version of what’s coming when Dem’s control Congress,” Massie wrote on his X account. “They’ll have hearings & trials.”
Hegseth is scheduled to hold his first Pentagon news briefing since May on Nov. 10, 2026, and a House vote on the impeachment resolution could come by midweek, the Associated Press reported.
Hegseth defended his record as defense secretary in a social media video on Nov. 5, 2026, in which he addressed the impeachment attempt, NBC News reported.
“A disgruntled, defeated congressman, along with all his Democrat allies, has also dropped sham articles of impeachment against yours truly, just like they tried against President Trump twice,” Hegseth said.
Calls for Hegseth's removal began before Democrats' victories in the Nov. 3, 2026, midterm elections. Rep. Adam Smith changed his mind on impeaching Hegseth just a few days before the election.
The BBC reported that President Trump denied reports that he is looking to fire and replace Hegseth as defense secretary.
Similar reports surfaced that Secretary of State Marco Rubio might be looking to leave his position in the Trump administration so he can start working on a presidential campaign. The New York Times reported that Rubio denied plans to leave the administration, saying that working for Trump through the end of his term had “always been my plan.”
Rubio also holds a 17% price on Kalshi's next Cabinet departure market, where Hegseth leads at 57%.
Dan Driscoll
Driscoll served as Army secretary under Hegseth until resigning in early September 2026.
NPR reported Driscoll and Hegseth “were often at odds. Hegseth fired a number of top Army generals, and has been promoting officers seen as more aligned with the defense secretary.” The Army went from 10 four-star generals on active duty to five under Hegseth’s leadership, according to NPR.
NPR also reported that “Hegseth also blocked promotions of Black and women army officers who had the support of Driscoll. These personnel differences were seen as the main reason, but not the only reason that they didn’t see eye to eye.”
Fortune reported that Driscoll returned to the private sector two months after his resignation. OpenAI hired Driscoll “to the bespoke role of senior counselor for national security modernization.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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