If you thought a tight win for Ole Miss over their former coach was entertaining in Week 3, buckle up for Week 4.
Representing a modern record, six different matchups this Saturday feature two ranked schools facing off, per the AP Top 25.
#1 Texas visits #14 Tennessee on Rocky Top, hoping to stay unbeaten. #12 USC is hoping to turn the tables on #20 Oregon as that series shifts to SoCal in 2026. #17 Iowa visits #18 Michigan at the Big House in what figures to be a fist fight.
There are three more beyond those. Let’s break every single one of them down and see how the market looks at Kalshi.
For informational purposes only. This is opinion, not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.
#1 Texas at #14 Tennessee
The day starts with the country’s top ranked team trying to survive in Knoxville and avoid being a playoff statement for Josh Heupel’s bunch.
#1 Texas’ historic comeback two weeks ago against Ohio State earned them the top spot, but it’s been far from smooth sailing in the other five total halves they’ve played this season. Arch Manning completed just 50% of his throws last week in a 30-6 win over Texas-San Antonio, and the Longhorns’ rankings in offensive (78th) and defensive (27th) yards per play aren’t indicative of an unbeatable juggernaut.
The question is just whether or not #14 Tennessee is the right squad to topple them. The Vols are relatively untested outside of a fine 45-24 win over Georgia Tech in Week 2. Uber-talented freshman QB Faizon Brandon has 9 total touchdowns to 0 interceptions before this step up in competition.
Brandon hasn’t even faced a quality defense before being thrust into a high-pressure environment against Collin Simmons and a Texas pass rush that had Julian Sayin uncomfortable. Thankfully for him, this is at home, but the Volunteers lost to ranked teams three times on Rocky Top last year.
Manning’s efficiency woes would make it a little stunning for Texas to light up the scoreboard, but I can’t help but feel his experience and ability to make plays with his feet can help Texas survive.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Texas 24, Tennessee 19
#4 Ole Miss at #21 Florida
This market has to be a little bit of a surprise, no? It’s tough to play on the road in the SEC, but #4 Ole Miss is one of the hottest commodities in the sport after turning aside former coach Lane Kiffin and LSU.
Beyond the emotional roller coaster of that game, a significantly improved #21 Florida awaits. In Jon Sumerall’s first campaign, the Gators are 3-0 and outlasted a quality Auburn team at Jordan-Hare Stadium a week ago. Running back Jaden Baugh is second in FBS in rushing yards (458) and is tied for the country lead in scrimmage touchdowns (8).
The Rebels are allowing 4.1 yards per carry (YPC; 71st in FBS), which was the formula the Tigers used to make a game of it a week ago. Against Baugh, that’s a little scary and might be why Florida is favored in this contest.
Still, Trinidad Chambliss is pulling away in Heisman Trophy odds with an 81.5 QBR despite facing two ranked schools, and Byrum Brown put up 336 scrimmage yards on this fairly young Florida defense.
On September 14th, the Rebels were trading on Kalshi at 75.4% to win this contest. There’s been a ton of movement in this market, but Chambliss doesn’t really play poorly in any venue. He’s had 16 straight individual games with a QBR of at least 65.0. That’s a lot of sudden, immediate faith in Baugh and transfer quarterback Aaron Philo to put up points.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Ole Miss 31, Florida 28
#17 Iowa at #18 Michigan
This is big boy football in the Big Ten.
Kirk Ferentz and #17 Iowa visit #18 Michigan in a game where both teams are looking to find their rhythm offensively, but these are, once again, two of the best defensive schools in the country. Iowa is second in yards per play allowed (3.1 YPP) across FBS, and Michigan is fifth (3.5).
Were the Wolverines fortunate to escape a Week 1 disaster against Western Michigan? Definitely, but those sins have been washed away with a low-scoring win over Oklahoma plus a 52-17 win over Texas-El Paso last weekend. Amazingly, they haven’t yet traveled this season, and we’re at “The Big House” again for this one.
Ferentz is a believer in early-season tune-ups, so they’ve faced three intrastate schools, including Iowa State, and outscored them 113-13. They’ve pitched two shutouts. Putting up 16 points against the Cyclones in a tilt where quarterback Hank Brown posted just 6.4 YPA, they seem to have some of the same systemic challenges through the air that have plagued prior seasons.
Touchdowns might feel worth 17 points in this matchup, and I like the fact that Bryce Underwood, who leads Michigan in rushing with 156 yards, might be able to make key plays with his feet and move the chains.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Michigan 16, Iowa 6
#20 Oregon at #12 USC
If not now, it might never be for Lincoln Riley and the #12 USC Trojans.
USC is 4-11 during regular season matchups with ranked squads under Riley, and none of the triumphs have been of significance to push the Trojans toward legitimate contender status. Even though #20 Oregon already has an early-season blemish, this one would.
I still think quarterback Jayden Maiava (87.5 QBR) is the best NFL prospect at the position in school right now, and he’s carried a transitioning USC offense with 1,173 passing yards. They’re 13th in passing YPA (10.0) thus far.
Oregon’s struggles have been all around the team. They’re 77th in opponent YPP allowed (5.5), Dante Moore (61.5 QBR) hasn’t come close to delivering on his “best quarterback in the nation” whispers from the preseason, and they haven’t done him any favors with just 3.8 yards per carry on the ground.
USC’s first Power 5 opponent, Rutgers, kept it within a touchdown last week and scored 35 points, though. They’re likely down star wideout Trent Mosley again this weekend. It’d be devastating for USC fans desperate to make their first College Football Playoff to get physically pushed around in this marquee spot again, but is this quietly not a get-right spot for an Oregon team we know has a boatload of talent? It’s their backs against the wall this time.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Oregon 34, USC 30
#23 Texas A&M at #10 LSU
We’ll call this the “Disappointment Bowl” for two SEC schools looks to stop a losing skid before it happens.
Even as funny as it was to see Lane Kiffin lose to the old squad that he left in a horrible position last year, Kiffin himself didn’t seem surprised, given the emotions at stake and the talent on Ole Miss. #10 LSU looks to build on the offensive juggernaut it looked like it was going to be in a Week 1 rout of Clemson.
Even if a losing effort, LSU churned out 172 rushing yards between quarterback Sam Leavitt’s mobility and breakout star running back Dillin Jones. But, Leavitt’s inefficiency as a passer (5.9 YPA) doomed the Tigers, and it feels even rockier than the box score looks.
The same can be said for #23 Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, though. Reed had another pair of costly turnovers against Kentucky, and he’s completing just 59.6% of his passes. The Aggies’ secondary has also been atrocious, allowing 7.8 YPA (85th in FBS) despite a cupcake on the schedule.
Death Valley at night is a treacherous place to play, but this is a matchup of two inconsistent passers and defenses. I sort of see these two schools as the Spider-Man meme right now.
Kiffin and Mike Elko, Texas A&M’s head man, have stunningly never crossed paths to this point. I wish I had a better measuring stick, and Kiffin’s offense can turn a game on its head quickly, but I just think Kalshi trades might not be showing enough respect for an A&M squad that made the CFP last year with most of the same pieces.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: LSU 28, Texas A&M 24
#19 Missouri at #24 Mississippi State
Look at this movement! Kamario Taylor mania has extended to the markets at Kalshi.
I got burned by the dual-threat sensation two weeks ago, expecting Minnesota to handle #24 Mississippi State on the road. No such mistake was made last week against LaNorris Sellers and a South Carolina squad that continues to struggle in conference. The million-dollar question here is whether this is an overreaction.
I’m not sure, but that has less to do with Taylor (89.2 QBR) and more to do with the fact that #19 Missouri is a really intriguing team themselves. Eli Drinkwitz’s club is 3-0, including a road blowout of Kansas in Week 2. Lefty quarterback Austin Simmons has 9 total touchdowns to 0 interceptions in his first major opportunity after Trinidad Chambliss stole his job at Ole Miss a year ago.
Defense has been the signature of the Drinkwitz era, and they’re 12th in YPP (4.0) allowed across the country right now. Taylor should stretch them to their limits, and the cowbells will be ringing in Starkville.
But, a key element of this matchup is that Fluff Bothwell has topped 110 rushing yards in each of these impressive State wins. Missouri ranked 13th across FBS in rushing YPA allowed last year, and they’re 10th in this year’s small sample. If Bothwell gets bottled up, does Taylor look quite as sharp?
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Missouri 30, Mississippi State 28
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