Colorado primary odds: Will progressive Dems continue their winning streak?

Tuesday, June 23 was a major win for the DSA as they picked up a slew of wins across New York. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, an icon of the DSA movement, locked up her primary rather easily. Two DSA newcomers, Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier, also picked up major primary wins. Valdez was the favorite in the NY-07 primary since late May, but Avila Chevalier was an underdog heading into Election Day in her NY-13 race.

The New York victories had ripple effects for candidates in upcoming primaries across the nation, including Colorado's June 30 primaries. Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros rose from a narrow favorite of 51% to 72% in her Colorado-01 Democratic primary in the hours following the New York City results. Kiros, a 29-year-old lawyer, is challenging incumbent Diana DeGette, who was first elected to Congress in 1996. In 2023, Kiros was fired from her New York City law firm for posting an open letter in support of pro-Palestine student protests. Now, Kiros' stance on the conflict has become a centerpiece of her campaign in the Denver district, one of the most progressive districts in the nation.

Ahead of the June 23 DSA sweep in New York City, the race was very even according to Kalshi markets. Now, the markets suggest the veteran politician faces an uphill battle on Election Day. However, DeGette dramatically outpaces Kiros in campaign spending, boasting over double the expenditures of Kiros. DeGette has leaned into her veteran status, saying, "Now is not the time to gamble and send somebody with no experience to Washington." Despite DeGette's fundraising advantage, Kiros heads into Election Day with a 75% chance to win the nomination.

Across Colorado, Democratic voters will go to the polls to decide between two seasoned politicians competing for their party's gubernatorial nomination. Michael Bennet, Colorado's sitting U.S. Senator, led the market for months heading into mid-June. Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser, while not connected to the DSA, has positioned himself as the anti-establishment candidate in the race, pledging to ban corporate political contributions. From a policy standpoint, Bennet and Weiser agree on a majority of issues. The central contention of the race has become who is the right candidate to take on President Trump. Bennet's support for select Trump cabinet nominations and Weiser's reluctance to join state lawsuits against Trump administration actions have both drawn fire from critics. In the week leading up to Election Day, Weiser has surged more than 50 percentage points from his 26.5% position the previous Monday. Currently, he has a 79% chance to win the nomination.

The Colorado Senate Democratic primary also pits a traditional Democrat against a progressive challenger. State Senator Julie Gonzales will bid to unseat incumbent Senator John Hickenlooper. Gonzales has campaigned on taking a more combative approach to fighting the Trump administration. Conversely, Hickenlooper has touted his record of working across party lines. The market views this as an uphill battle for the progressive Gonzales, who has moved away from the DSA to broaden her appeal in the race. Currently, Senator Hickenlooper has a 93% chance of earning the nomination.

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