Kalshi's “blue wave” market hit 87% earlier today before easing to 86% as traders reassessed the outlook for November's midterm elections.
A blue wave is defined as the Democrats holding 218 or more seats in the U.S. House and 49 or more seats in the Senate.
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Democrats lead in recent polling
The market's rise comes as recent polling has shown challenges for Republicans on the generic congressional ballot and declining approval ratings for President Donald Trump.
The Times of London's Katy Balls pointed to economic concerns, fuel prices, and Trump's approval rating as potential problems for Republicans heading into November.
“The price of diesel in the U.S. hit an all-time high of $6.53 per gallon last week,” Balls wrote. “As the president rolled out the red carpet for President Xi of China, his approval rating fell. Voters are growing increasingly concerned about artificial intelligence and the economy.”
The poll numbers are also favoring a blue wave.
New York Times polling analyst Nate Cohn wrote on Sept. 20, 2026, that Democrats were averaging a lead of more than eight points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot.
“If Democrats win by that margin in November, it would essentially match the 2018 blue wave and exceed other wave elections, like those in 1994, 2006, and 2010,” Cohn wrote.
“More recently, the high-profile national polls have shown Democrats faring even better,” Cohn wrote. “The Times/Siena poll showed Democrats up by 8.5 points, while Quinnipiac University, Marquette University Law School, and YouGov/Economist all gave Democrats double-digit leads.”
Some Republican leaders have also voiced concerns about the party's midterm position.
Time Magazine's Philip Elliott wrote, “[T]he sentiment among Republicans is shifting from nervous to fatalistic, as a pileup of bad news has many convinced they are heading toward an electoral disaster.”
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, recently briefed Republican senators about the party's midterm position.
“According to a person who listened to the briefing, Scott urged ‘incumbent Senators to run like they were behind so the NRSC’ could focus on ‘a record number of toss-up races,’” Elliott wrote. “He told them the NRSC’s priority was saving GOP-held seats in Texas, Iowa, Maine, and Alaska.”
A blue tsunami
Kalshi's higher-threshold “blue tsunami” market jumped 12.4 percentage points.
The price for a blue tsunami rose from 40.6% to 53%. The market defines a blue tsunami as the Democrats holding 235 or more seats in the U.S. House and 51 or more seats in the U.S. Senate.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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