The week ahead: Big Brother and blue waves

We hope your week is off to a good start. There is a lot happening across sports, entertainment, and, for better or for worse, politics.

Big Brother Season 28 is seeing the season finale appear this Thursday and traders are already getting active when it comes to who they think will win.

On the other side of the pond, the Premier League season is well underway with excitement and controversy both on and off the pitch.

Back in the U.S., traders are turning their attention to Capitol Hill amid talk of a Blue Wave and perhaps a Blue Tsunami occurring during the upcoming elections.

There is a lot to unpack jumping between reality TV, soccer, and politics, so we are getting right into it.

Big Brother S28 started in July, and after nearly three months of play, Taylor Brown, Drew Campbell, and Survivor veteran Rick Devens are the final three players, one of whom will be named the Big Brother Season 28 Winner and take home $750,000 Thursday night.

Though the season was initially shaped by the icons, namely Devens and Dee Valladares, who built strong relationships with first-time players early in the season, the late-season breakdown of those relationships only saw Devens survive after Dee Valladares was eliminated at the Final 4.

Importantly, Devens’ survival was due to Drew’s veto, a decision that many believe will determine the outcome of the whole season.

The final Head of Household (HOH) competition takes place in three rounds. Taylor won Part 1, and Devens won Part 2, meaning the two will face each other in the deciding competition on Thursday. Since Drew cannot win HOH, he will need one of them to bring him to the Final 2.

From conversations heard by fans on the live feed many are speculating that Devens plans to take Drew to the end and coincidentally, so might Taylor. So while Drew has less control over reaching the Final 2, he arguably has a greater chance of making it there and losing may have improved his position.

While it is down to Taylor and Devens competing for Final HOH, whether Drew’s decision to save Devens at the Final 4 ends up winning him $750,000 or sending him home will be the biggest question answered this Thursday. 

As soccer fans already know, the Premier League is well underway but is currently on a three-week hiatus as a result of FIFA consolidating the two one-week breaks that normally take place in September and October into one 16-day period. While a lack of Premier League puts a dent in early morning weekend plans for many, this fortunately provides a great chance to reflect on what has already happened, and where things are going.

If there is a word to describe how the race this season is looking, it is ‘familiar.’ Arsenal and Man City are setting the pace while some teams that have traditionally fared well look like they are fumbling.

Despite fears that lead forward Erling Haaland would lose his mojo after chopping his Viking-esque hair, and the departure of Pep Guardiola as head coach, Man City has started the season perfectly. Unfortunately, legal battles have some traders predicting their slippage. Traders only grant them a 22% chance of becoming English Premier League Champion, far behind Arsenal, but on the pitch the team has looked stable and performed generally well in their matches so far.

With Man City and Arsenal dominating the league so far, traders have given both very high implied probabilities of being Top 4 Finishers at 70% and 97% respectively. What is more up for debate, though, is who will fill out the remaining spots.

Liverpool, who plays Man City in its first game back after the break, is clearly the pick of some traders to finish in the Top 4 of the table. Liverpool, like Man City, remains undefeated but has dropped points, and during the break in Premier League play, lost two starting attackers to injury: Cody Gakpo and Alexander Isak both had their international breaks cut short, meaning Liverpool has roughly $700k a week in reported wages currently sidelined.

One facet of the Premier League that raises the stakes of the game is relegation. At the end of the season, the three worst-performing teams get relegated and their spots are given to the top two teams from the Championship with one team decided through expanded playoffs. 

Right now, traders are giving Coventry City, Hull City, and Ipswich Town the highest likelihood of being relegated. While the season is still very young with 33 games left to play for each team, the Premier League has a habit of turning up surprises. Leicester winning the league back in 2016 after fighting with relegation the year before comes to mind, and with things like that happening, we’re excited there’s tons of soccer left to play to see what happens this season.

The rise in talk that the Democratic Party will do substantially better than just winning back one chamber in November has prompted discussion of a Blue Wave or even a Blue Tsunami. While these terms are often used vaguely and broadly in political discussion, for our markets there are specific definitions worth highlighting. 

The “Blue wave this year?” market resolves Yes if all of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms.

The “Blue tsunami this year?” resolves Yes if ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms. 

Democrats are focusing on cost of living, high inflation, and economic effects from the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. And many traders seem to think these attacks are a winning strategy with undecided voters.

The Senate races are particularly striking because Democrats are gaining competitiveness in not only traditional battlegrounds like that of Michigan and Maine where traders have Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins but also in states like Iowa where Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are forecasted to have a close battle.

Redistricting, including partisan gerrymandering, complicates things even further. But our markets and other polls tend to favor the Democratic Party. As with anything involving politics, though, we will not know what happens until after election day.

If politics, Premier League soccer, or reality TV is not your thing, we would be tempted to say there is not something for you on Kalshi, but that would be completely untrue. There are tons of markets to trade, and we are sure you will find something that piques your interest.

We hope this week is a good one. 

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
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