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Kalshi markets swung on Wednesday ahead of the open as Larry Ellison’s fortune leapt with Oracle’s after-hours spike. In the “Wealthiest person in the world this year?” market, Elon Musk is 62% (down 29 points on the day) and Larry Ellison is 38% (up 28 points). Traders still give Musk the edge to finish 2025 at No. 1, but the gap narrowed fast.
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The surge is also visible across related markets. In “Who will be the three wealthiest people in the world,” Ellison is up 7 points to 89%, trailing only Musk at 97%, while Mark Zuckerberg is 65% (down 2 points) and Jeff Bezos 41% (down 4 points) for the third slot. In “Who will be the world’s first trillionaire,” Ellison is up 1 point to 4%, signaling a modest shift in ultra-long odds.
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The odds shift comes as Bloomberg reported Ellison’s net worth rose by about $70 billion after Oracle beat expectations and guided to stronger cloud growth, lifting his wealth to about $364 billion, just shy of Musk’s $384 billion. If sustained through the session, it would be the largest one-day increase tracked by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Axios also reports premarket trading pointed to an even bigger jump, with Oracle up about $75.77. At roughly 1.16 billion shares, that implies a potential $88 billion single-day gain if those prices hold.
Traders appear to be balancing three forces. First, Oracle’s earnings and guidance improved the outlook for Ellison’s stake, pushing his year-end richest odds higher. Second, Tesla’s year-to-date decline, cited by Bloomberg at roughly 14%, weighs on Musk’s lead. Third, markets still assume Musk’s diversified holdings and volatility can swing rankings again before year-end, which is why he retains the lead in the headline market and remains an overwhelming inclusion in the top-three market.
What to watch next: whether Oracle’s opening gains persist into the close, any follow-through in Tesla shares, and updated rich-list tallies as prices settle. If Oracle holds near premarket levels or extends, Ellison’s probability could climb further. A fade would likely restore some of Musk’s cushion.
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