Good day, traders.
This evening in Los Angeles, TV’s biggest stars will gather for the 78th Emmy Awards.
There’s no doubt the show will be filled with speeches from the rich and famous grandstanding on topics that don’t even affect them. In the meantime, Kalshi traders have a much more challenging job: figuring out who’s actually going to win.
Let’s get into it.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Emmy Awards.
Can The Pitt repeat?
It's a well-known fact that humans love drama. Because of this, it's no mystery that the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series is probably the award ceremony's biggest deal.
Last year, the prestigious award went to The Pitt, and if things shake out the way our markets believe, they’re on track to win it again.
At the time of writing this, Kalshi traders are giving The Pitt a 95% chance of winning the award. The biggest competitor, Pluribus, is only hovering at 7%. That's not to say that Pluribus is any slouch; the show has 18 nominations and has already received four Creative Arts wins.
The problem for them is that Season 2 of The Pitt blew fans away. And unless the market is wrong, it's looking like the voters may think the same.
Is Rhea Seehorn finally due?
Now things may not be looking good for Pluribus winning the previously mentioned award, but things are looking much better for the show’s lead actress, Rhea Seehorn. Our market for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series is giving her an 83% chance of taking home an envelope.
The star is previously known for her supporting role in the critically acclaimed show Better Call Saul. She received two Emmy nominations over the course of that show's six seasons. Unfortunately for her, those nominations never resulted in an Emmy.
The good news for her is our traders think it’s very likely her time has finally come.
Widow’s Bay versus Hacks
The Emmy award for Outstanding Comedy Series is currently a fight between Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay and HBO’s Hacks.
For those of you who haven’t seen either, Widow’s Bay is a comedy-horror that was released earlier this year. Hacks, on the other hand, is on its fifth and final season, having already been featured in the Emmys for the past four years.
As it stands, Widow’s Bay appears to have a leg up, with an 87% chance of winning the award. But Hacks isn’t completely out of the running.
Barely over a month ago, at the end of July, Hacks was actually the favorite in our markets, but that changed during the first week of August. It is possible that Kalshi Traders are pricing the originality of Widow’s Bay into the equation. Hacks has been critically acclaimed for years now, has Emmys under its belt, and is on its final season. Maybe Emmy voters are looking for something new.
Can Jean Smart complete a perfect Emmy run?
Continuing on the topic of Hacks, the lead actress Jean Smart is currently priced to make history. Kalshi Markets are giving her a whopping 94% chance of winning an Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series.
You may be wondering: what makes this historic? The thing is, she’s already received an Emmy in this category for each of the past four seasons of Hacks. If she wins the award again for the final season, she’ll be the first woman to win the category for every season of a show’s entire run.
Most will admit her performance this season was stellar, but traders may be factoring her previous wins and history in the making into the equation.
Will Harrison Ford finally win an Emmy?
There’s no denying that Harrison Ford is an industry legend. From Star Wars to Indiana Jones, the star has seemingly done it all. The only thing he hasn’t done is win an Emmy. Despite his tenured career, the 84-year-old has yet to add this achievement. Will 2026 finally be his year?
While Ford is nominated for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy series, traders are giving Stephen Root a 52% chance of winning for his performance in Widow’s Bay. Ford’s chances are priced at 40% for Shrinking.
The thing is, Widow’s Bay is much more heavily nominated this year, receiving 19 Emmy nominations, which may be giving Root's performance a lift. The question is whether voters lean into the novelty of finally rewarding a legend, or go with the performance that's tied to the stronger show.
Could Outstanding Variety Series end in a tie?
This year's Emmys merged Outstanding Variety Talk Series and Outstanding Scripted Variety Series into one field, judged by an up-or-down vote per nominee, so multiple winners are possible if more than one clears 90% approval. Kalshi traders have The Late Show with Stephen Colbert as the heavy favorite at 72%, likely riding sympathy for its final, cancellation-shortened season.
A tie is the next most likely outcome, priced at 28%. Jimmy Kimmel Live! sits at 4%, with Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, The Daily Show, and Saturday Night Live bunched at 1% apiece. Given how untested this new, merged format is, a multi-winner night wouldn't be a shock.
Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Emmy Awards.
