The odds of a partial government shutdown may be high, but if it happens, it probably won’t be a long one, at least according to current Kalshi pricing.
Shutdown length
Kalshi’s market on the length of the next government shutdown shows a forecast of just 3.2 days. That’s a drop in the bucket compared to last year’s record-breaking stoppage, which dragged on for 43 days.
Traders currently price an 87% chance that the shutdown will last more than a day, an 82% chance that it will last more than two days, and a 64% chance that it will last more than three days.
A shutdown is still likely
Traders are also still very bullish on the prospects of a government shutdown tomorrow. Chances of it taking place on Saturday are now priced at 81.6%.
How did we get here?
Chances of a government shutdown at the end of the month remained slim until last weekend’s unrest in Minnesota. After a protester was killed by federal agents, Democratic senators vowed not to support any bill that included funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations.
But on Thursday, Senate Democrats and the White House struck a deal to pass five spending bills and a stopgap measure to fund the Department of Homeland Security for two weeks as they continue negotiations for ICE funding and reforms.
However, the House still has to pass the measure before the Saturday deadline to avoid a shutdown, and House Speaker Mike Johnson has said Monday is the earliest they could take up the bill.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Projected shutdown length (before March): 3.2 Days
The government shuts down on Saturday: 81.6%
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