Traders appear unconvinced that recent negotiations can avoid another partial government shutdown by Saturday.
When news broke that negotiations between Democrats and the Trump Administration were underway, odds of a shutdown this weekend fell as low as 49%. But the dip didn’t last, and the price is back to 76% as of Thursday afternoon.
What caused the rebound?
Earlier this week, Democrats, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, vowed not to vote for the upcoming appropriations bill if it included funding for ICE. Schumer cited the “appalling actions” committed by ICE agents in Minnesota, including the shooting deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti.
Despite early optimism that a deal could be reached, NPR reports that earlier today the Senate failed to pass a new funding package consisting of six bills that include one with funding for Homeland Security and ICE.
Even if the bills passed the Senate, they would still need approval from the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, and the chances of it passing in the House appear slim. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the future of the bill’s passage in the House “would be somewhat uncertain.”
Who will vote for the appropriations bill?
The market for senators who may vote for the next appropriations bill is also seeing some noticeable movement. Republican senators Rick Scott and Ron Johnson stated they won’t support changes to DHS/ICE funding.
Scott’s odds of supporting the next funding bill dropped 53 points to 32%, and Johnson’s price dropped by 46 points to 23%.
How many senators will vote in favor?
Traders also believe the number of senators who will vote for the bill is dropping. Kalshi’s vote total market saw a 16.5-point drop in the 80-84 bracket, bringing it down to 19%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
A partial government shutdown occurring: 76%
No shutdown this weekend: 24%
80–84 senators voting in favor of a funding bill: 19%
Rick Scott voting in favor of the next appropriations bill: 32%
Ron Johnson voting in favor of the next appropriations bill: 23%
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.