Final 2026 midterm odds: Last look before Election Day

With Election Day just one day away, the race for control of Congress is approaching its conclusion. On Tuesday, November 3, voters will decide the outcomes of hundreds of congressional races and dozens of Senate and gubernatorial races in the 2026 midterms.

As campaigning enters its final hours, Kalshi’s prediction markets provide one last look at traders’ expectations for elections nationwide. 

As of November 2 at noon ET, Kalshi traders price Democrats at 74% to win the Senate, compared to 26% for Republicans. Meanwhile, Democrats hold a 94% chance of winning the House, with Republicans at 6%. 

In the final hours, here's a closer look at the final 2026 midterm odds, the races that could decide control of Congress, and when results may begin arriving on election night. 

For additional context on how markets compare with traditional election forecasting, see Kalshi’s 2026 midterm predictions guide. 

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.}

Democrats enter Election Day as the favorites to capture control of the United States Senate, according to Kalshi traders. 

As of November 2, the Senate control market implies Democrats hold a 74% chance of capturing the chamber, compared to 26% for Republicans. That’s a change of around 11 percentage points for Democrats since October 2, when traders priced their chances at roughly 63%. 

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, compared to 47 for Democrats and the two independents who caucus with them. With 35 seats up for election, Democrats need a net gain of four to win control of the chamber. 

A gain of just three seats would result in a 50-50 Senate, allowing Republican Vice President JD Vance to cast tie-breaking votes and preserve Republican control of the chamber.

For Republicans, retaining enough of their competitive seats to prevent a four-seat Democratic gain would be sufficient to maintain their majority, assuming they can defend other seats and avoid offsetting losses. 

Under Kalshi’s market rules, the Senate control contract can settle early if at least four of eight designated media outlets declare the same outcome without conflicting calls. Otherwise, control will be determined by the party of the Senate president pro tempore on February 1, 2027. 

Although the final prices leading into Election Day reflect traders’ expectations, it’s important to know that no outcome is guaranteed. 

The fight for the House of Representatives seems less competitive than the Senate contest, with Kalshi traders giving Democrats a 94% chance of gaining control, compared to 6% for Republicans. 

Over the last month, Democratic chances have increased by around 2 percentage points, moving from nearly 92% on October 2, to 94% on November 2. 

Unlike the Senate, all 435 House seats are up for election during the midterms, with 218 seats required for a majority. 

Republicans won a narrow 220-215 majority in the 2024 elections, meaning Democrats will need a net gain of just three seats in order to gain control this election cycle. 

As of the latest review of seats from the House Clerk’s membership records, the House currently lists 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent, and two vacancies. 

Unlike the Senate, where a handful of statewide races could determine control, the House outcome will depend on results across dozens of competitive congressional districts nationwide. 

Kalshi’s House control contract follows rules similar to those governing the Senate control market. It can be resolved early following a qualifying consensus of media calls, or otherwise, according to the party of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027. 

With the Senate potentially decided by a handful of seats, individual contests across the country could prove pivotal. 

Among the most closely watched races are Republican-held seats in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, alongside Michigan’s open Senate seat, which Democrats currently hold. 

The following contests are among the most competitive heading into Election Day, based on Kalshi’s November 2 market pricing. 

Note: Prices are listed as November 2 snapshots from noon ET and are subject to change. 

In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democratic challenger Josh Turek in a race for an open seat. The state is among the closest Senate contests on Kalshi, making its outcome particularly relevant to both parties’ hopes of controlling the chamber. 

Kansas offers another potential Democratic pickup opportunity, with incumbent Republican Roger Marshall facing Democrat Adam Hamilton. 

In Maine, incumbent Republican Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson in one of the nation’s most watched contests. Jackson’s market implied probability rose to 73% heading into Election Day, following a campaign in which odds have shifted considerably over time.

Ohio could also play a significant role in deciding Senate control, where former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown seeks election against Republican incumbent Jon Husted. 

Other important races, including Texas and Nebraska, may become more competitive as Election Day unfolds. In Texas Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are squaring off while Independent Dan Osborn faces Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. 

Michigan presents a different challenge for Democrats, who are defending an open seat in the race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers. 

Georgia and North Carolina both have important races, but their markets indicate less uncertainty than the others, giving Democratic candidates big edges heading into Election Day. 

Democrats need to net gain four seats, meaning that Maine, Ohio, and Texas alone would not be enough to secure the Senate. They would still need another net pickup, making races like Iowa and Kansas especially important. 

Meanwhile, Republicans could preserve their Senate majority by holding enough of the contested seats. 

Congressional control will garner most of the headline attention on Election Day, but voters in 36 states are electing governors on November 3. 

These elections will help determine leadership of state governments and could influence policy priorities on things like taxation, education, infrastructure, and more. 

Among the notable gubernatorial races this election cycle are Florida, Texas, and Georgia, which rank among the most competitive markets on Kalshi as of November 2. 

In Georgia, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican Rick Jackson in a race to succeed the term-limited Governor Brian Kemp. Kalshi traders currently price Lance Bottoms at 68% compared to 32% for Jackson. 

Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking another term against Democrat Gina Hinojosa. While Abbott remains the market favorite, his Democratic challenger has narrowed the gap considerably since the summer. 

Florida’s contest pits Republican Byron Donalds against Democrat David Jolly, where Donalds holds an advantage at 62% heading into Election Day. 

Other notable elections include Nevada, where Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Democrat Aaron Ford, and Wisconsin, where Democrat David Crowley faces Republican Tom Tiffany. Plus in Ohio, Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s odds dipped to a new low just weeks before the election in his race against Amy Acton.

Although not every competitive governor race carries the same national significance as a Senate contest, these markets offer another window into traders' expectations for the political landscape after Election Day. 

The final month before Election Day has featured shifting expectations across several key midterm markets. 

While the final prices provide a snapshot of where traders stand on the eve of the election, recent odds movement helps illustrate which contests have experienced the greatest changes in expectations. 

These shifts have been unfolding amid broader changes in congressional expectations, including recent gains for Democrats in Kalshi’s American Power Index. 

The first polls will close at 6:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 3, beginning what could be a lengthy election night as results from key Senate, House, and governor races are reported. 

Polls in the Eastern Time portions of Indiana and Kentucky close first, potentially allowing early calls in less competitive House districts. 

Afterwards, polls in Georgia will begin to close at 7:00 p.m. ET, followed by North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30 p.m. ET. In Maine, polls will close at 8:00 p.m. ET. 

Other key races may require voters and market participants to stay up considerably later. Here's a list of some poll closing times throughout election night. A full list can be found via Ballotpedia. 

Although election results will begin arriving throughout the evening, a close contest may not be called immediately after polls close. 

According to the Associated Press, a race is called only when its decision team determines the trailing candidate no longer has a path to victory. Therefore, safe seats could be called shortly after polls close, while competitive races could remain undecided for hours longer. 

As votes are counted, Kalshi’s Senate and House control markets will continue reflecting traders’ changing expectations in real-time. Readers can also follow Kalshi’s midterm election results for updates as outcomes become clear. 

With Election Day just hours away, Kalshi traders give Democrats a 74% chance of winning control of the Senate, and a 94% chance of capturing the House. Meanwhile, Republicans have just a 26% chance of maintaining control of the Senate and a 6% chance of keeping the House. 

The final 2026 midterm odds offer a last snapshot of trader expectations, but voters will ultimately determine which outcomes become reality. 

Follow Kalshi's 2026 midterms hub throughout election night for live markets, updated prices, and the latest probabilities as votes are counted. 

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