Seven states are playing a significant role in deciding what party wins a Senate majority: Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa.
Taking control of the Senate requires the Democratic Party to retain all seats they currently hold and flip at least four Republican seats. Prediction market odds of Democrats controlling the Senate stand at an all-time high of 75%, a roughly 10-point increase over the past week.
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The all-time high in odds comes as Democratic candidates lead in nearly all seven states, according to the final set of polls from The New York Times and Siena University.
State-by-state Senate poll results
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed held a double-digit lead against Mike Rogers, 53% to 42%, though the poll of 1,011 likely voters was conducted before Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers and publicly feuded with El-Sayed.
In Texas, 50% of 1,215 likely voters selected James Talarico, a seven-point advantage over Ken Paxton.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican incumbent Susan Collins 51% to 45% among likely voters.
In Alaska, the NYT poll of 610 voters showed Democrat Mary Peltola with a two-point lead against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.
In Iowa, the Senate candidates were “effectively tied,” with Democrat Josh Turek at 48% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 47%.
What's driving Democratic Senate odds to record highs
“Dissatisfaction with President Trump and frustration over his management of the economy are dragging down Republicans, according to the polls,” the Times reported on Sunday. “Just 38 percent of likely voters approved of the president’s job performance in the seven states in the poll, a strikingly low figure given that Mr. Trump had won five of the states by double digits just two years ago.”
The Democratic Senate candidate in every state but Maine was viewed more favorably by likely voters than their Republican opponent, the polls from The Times and Siena University showed. Likely voters “believed Democrats would do a better job handling the cost of living and foreign wars and doing what is best for ordinary people,” per The Times.
Elections data analyst Nate Silver said Sunday in his newsletter, “Even if Democrats were to lose a couple of these races — and there’s actually some bad news for them here in Alaska, I think — absolutely no Democrat is going to complain if they only flip the top five races in this chart, especially if it comes along with the Texas governorship.”
Senate race prediction market odds
Zooming in, Democrats are also leading in individual event contracts for Senate races in those seven states: Texas, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa, albeit the odds for the race in Iowa are slightly better than a coin flip. Meanwhile, Kalshi traders forecast Democrats will hold 53 seats after the midterm elections.
The takeaway:
Kalshi traders currently price:
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