America: Are you ready for some hotdogs?

On Saturday, July 4th, the United States will be celebrating as the “land of the free” turns 250 years old.

When most people think about freedom, I’m sure they picture free speech, freedom of religion, or some other bullsh*t like that. But I think about the freedom to slam enough beef and salt to kill a horse.

And on that note, let's get into today’s topic: The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with Joey Chestnut or Nathan's Hot Dogs.}

54 years ago the world's greatest sporting event kicked off for the first time. I'm of course talking about the legendary Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest.

For those of you who are uninitiated, every year on July 4th Nathan’s Hot Dogs holds the international hot dog eating contest at their original store location on Coney Island. Over the years, this event has exploded. Not just in the number of attendees, but in the amount of dogs these athletes slug down.

When the event originally started in 1972, contestants had 3.5 minutes to gobble down as many hot dogs as they could muster. That year, the winner was able to force down 14 hot dogs. That's fairly impressive in my books, but in the decades since that amount of time has grown to 10 minutes. This time increase along with modern training has allowed the record number to grow to 76.

You're probably asking yourself "Who the f##k managed to eat 76 hot dogs in 10 minutes?" That's a fair question. This feat was accomplished in 2021 by the men's record holder Joey Chestnut.

This year he is back in the competition to defend his title. Because of his domination in the past, our markets are heavily favoring him as the winner with 91% of traders expecting him to clinch the title.

This year, he’s got solid competition from his competitor Patrick Bertoletti (who we interviewed last year). In order for Joey to come out on top, he’s likely going to have to force down 60-70+ hot dogs. Our markets predict there’s a 72% chance he manages to get down over 65 dogs, with the odds dropping to 49% for over 70.

The reality is, he likely will throttle how many dogs he eats based on his competitor. As you can imagine, eating this many hot dogs is hard on the body. If his competition is looking weak, he may not force down as many dogs. But if Patrick eats into the 60s, I think it’s likely we see Joey break into the 70s to secure his victory.

Now if you’ve made it this far into the newsletter, you’re probably nauseous at the thought of eating ¾ of 100 hot dogs. Me too. But what makes this year's competition even more nauseating is the thought of the weather.

New York, like much of the rest of the country, is going through a heat wave. Temperatures have been as high as 100 degrees the past few days, and Saturday July 4th is looking to be sweltering.

Our markets predict that New York has a 27% chance of breaking 100. Even if that doesn’t occur, the hot dog eating contest will definitely be taking place in 95+ degree weather. The good news is, the event will be broadcasting on ESPN. Rather than taking the train to Coney Island, I’ll place my trades and watch the show from the comfort of my couch and AC. 

Happy 250th birthday, America!

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
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