Kalshi's Week 3 NFL preview: The good, the bad, and the potentially ugly

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Two weeks in, the league has already split itself into three neat piles. Eight teams sit at 2-0: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Las Vegas, San Francisco, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Seattle and Kansas City.

Eight sit at 0-2, and out of respect for their fans, they shall remain unnamed.

The other sixteen are 1-1, which in September means everyone gets to keep believing whatever they want for a little longer.

Atlanta already learned how fast that belief expires, and Pittsburgh found out a week later after opening with a win. Both got outscored a combined 54-6 in Week 2. The Giants also came back down to earth hard, winning John Harbaugh's debut and then immediately falling 28-6 to the Rams before a national audience on Monday Night Football.

International football returns this week as Baltimore and "America's Team" play in Rio de Janeiro, the first NFL regular season game in that city and the league's third trip to Brazil overall, after two years in São Paulo.

(For the latest odds, visit Kalshi's NFL hub, and check out our NFL Power Rankings.)

^{For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the National Football League.}

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Buffalo has outscored its first two opponents by 15 combined points, a five-point escape against Houston followed by a more comfortable ten-point win over Detroit. The Chargers have somehow lost by the exact same 26-14 score in back-to-back weeks, first to Arizona and then to Las Vegas, the kind of symmetry the analytics crowd loves and the fan base does not. The Bills look in control and the Chargers look lost, but there is a reason for the expression "any given Sunday" and that is about the only thing Bolts fans have to hang their hats on.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Carolina's Week 1 defense got run over in a 59-37 shootout that helped Week 1 tie the post-merger scoring record, then held Atlanta to three points the very next week. Cleveland looked awful in a 24-point loss to Jacksonville, then pulled off a four-point survival act over Tampa Bay. Both teams sit at 1-1, with Jekyll and Hyde tendencies that cannot be ignored. Neither team's recent history suggests they will figure it out in Week 3, so expect a messy, mistake-filled game that no one deserves to win, but someone will anyway.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Detroit scored 31 points in Week 1 and needed overtime to defeat New Orleans, then scored 31 again against Buffalo in Week 2, which would have been great if their defense had not given up 41. The Jets, meanwhile, followed a genuinely encouraging win over Tennessee with a genuinely discouraging loss to Green Bay. What’s in store for Week 3? If history is any guide, expect the Lions to score 31 and the Jets to disappoint their fan base.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Houston lost its opener to Buffalo 36-31, then lost again to Cincinnati 20-6, leaving the Texans at 0-2 despite a defense that was supposed to be dominant this year. The Colts have their own problems, falling 41-23 to Baltimore in Week 1 before nearly stealing an overtime shootout from Kansas City, 33-30. Both teams are 0-2 but the difference is in Indy no one is particularly surprised. In Houston, they have a problem.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

New England lost its opener 13-10 to Seattle, then blew Pittsburgh's doors off, 20-3. Jacksonville has been the mirror image, a 34-10 rout of Cleveland followed by a 20-13 loss to Denver on the road. Both teams are 1-1 and trending in opposite directions in a game that will likely come down to quarterback play. New England needs Drake Maye to be the second coming and Jacksonville needs Trevor Lawrence to play like the messiah instead of just looking like him.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Kansas City needed overtime to survive Indianapolis last week, which is either a sign that they are a 2-0 paper tiger or just proof they can win ugly when they have to. Miami has lost by a combined 36 points across two games, including a 22-point beatdown on the road at San Francisco. Traders have this at 85-15, the widest line on the board, and after watching both teams play, it is hard to argue with the market's confidence.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Tennessee is 0-2 and has yet to lead in either game. They had a 23-10 loss to the Jets followed by a 24-20 defeat at home to Philadelphia. The Giants won John Harbaugh's debut over Dallas before getting run over by the Rams, 28-6, a loss that also ended Jaxson Dart's season with a knee injury. With Dart out for the year, the Jameis Winston show is underway in New York, and we will see if his prayers for the Lord to deliver him from the Pick 6 will carry over to the 2026 season (we have our doubts).

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Cincinnati is 2-0 and has not allowed more than 20 points in either game, beating Tampa Bay 33-27 before shutting down Houston, 20-6. Pittsburgh has been the opposite, scoring a competitive Week 1 win over Atlanta followed by a 20-3 no-show against New England. The AFC North is as wide open as it has been in years, so this is a game that is likely to really matter, and it will be decided by one quarterback that would rather be on a catwalk than a football field, and another that would rather be tripping on ayahuasca than tripping over his lineman.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Seattle is 2-0 and their defense picked right up where they left off last year with a three-point escape against New England followed by a 24-point beatdown of Arizona. Washington is 0-2 and getting worse, a competitive two-point loss to Philadelphia followed by a 17-point no-show against Dallas. Both teams are already down to their backup quarterbacks in Week 3, but both are week-to-week moving forward. However, until then, enjoy Drew Lock versus Marcus Mariota, sports fans!

Sunday, 4:05pm ET

San Francisco is 2-0 and has outscored its opponents 62-20, a comfortable win over the Rams "down under" followed by a rout of Miami. Arizona is 1-1, coming off an upset of the Chargers before getting run off the field by Seattle, 31-7. Are the 49ers for real? This will not be the game that answers it, unless of course they lose.

Sunday, 4:05pm ET

Minnesota is 2-0 despite averaging under 25 points a game, grinding out wins over Green Bay and Chicago behind a defense that has allowed a combined 25 points. Tampa Bay has literally fumbled their way to an 0-2 record with a 33-27 loss to Cincinnati followed by an embarrassing 23-19 loss to a Cleveland team led by Deshaun Watson. Kyler Murray returns from the protocol this week and has to be licking his chops getting to play a team the Browns just beat. As for the Bucs... well, they are at home, so there is that.

Sunday, 4:25pm ET, Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro

Baltimore is 1-1, running through Indianapolis before an uncharacteristic 24-17 letdown against New Orleans. Dallas is also 1-1, an opening loss to the Giants followed by a 37-20 blowout of Washington that gives Cowboys fans a glimmer of hope. Both franchises fly to Rio with something to prove and needing a win to return to the US with a winning record. Who will it be? The current market is not much of a Dallas buyer's club.

Sunday, 4:25pm ET

Las Vegas is 2-0, a 27-13 win over Miami followed by a 26-14 win over the division-rival Chargers. New Orleans is 1-1 after a heartbreaking overtime loss to Detroit followed by a genuinely impressive 24-17 upset of Baltimore. Heading into Week 3, the "is Tyler Shough for real" train has officially left the station, destination unknown. Meanwhile, the "can Lamar win a championship" train is still in a dead-zone outside the Dakotas, and there has been no communication with the engineers.

Sunday, 8:20pm ET

The Super Bowl favorite Rams are 1-1 after an opening 27-7 loss to San Francisco in Australia followed by a 28-6 bounce-back win over the Giants. Denver is also 1-1, dropping a bad 21-point loss to Kansas City followed by a 20-13 win over Jacksonville. The Rams bring the reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford to the table while the Broncos defense will try to bring the rain on the Rams' parade.

Monday, 8:15pm ET

Philadelphia is 2-0 but has not blown anyone out, a two-point escape over Washington followed by a four-point win over Tennessee. Chicago is 1-1, coming off a 59-37 shootout that helped Week 1 tie the post-merger scoring record, before getting shut out until garbage time in an ugly 9-3 loss to Minnesota. In Week 3, the Eagles offense is banged up, but Jalen Hurts is in. Meanwhile, for Chicago Caleb Williams is out, but will likely be watching from Paul Pierce's wheelchair on the sideline.

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