Kalshi's Week 2 rundown: learning the wrong lessons from Week 1

This column is commentary on Kalshi market prices, not financial advice. Trading involves risk, and so does expecting Miami to win any games this year.

Week 1 gave every fanbase plenty to be wrong about. Carolina and Chicago combined for 96 points, the highest-scoring game since the merger, the result of an explosive offense or an imploding defense. Detroit needed overtime to beat New Orleans by one. Buffalo needed the fourth quarter to hold off Houston by five. And the Chargers? Let's just say that it was a blood bath in the Survivor Pool community, and they were the one holding the knife.

Now it's time for Week 2, when sixteen more games arrive carrying all the delusions, both good and bad, that Week 1 gave us. A team that allowed 39 points still thinks it's dangerous. A team that lost by two is already accepting congratulations. And somewhere in Denver, a coaching staff is calling a 21-point loss to Kansas City "more competitive than it looked."

The markets below don't care about any of that. Let's see what they have to say.

(For the latest odds, visit Kalshi’s NFL hub and Power Rankings.)

^{See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.}

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Carolina's defense gave up 59 points in the highest-scoring Week 1 game since the merger, which defensive gurus will tell you is “problematic.” Atlanta managed exactly 13 against Pittsburgh and still isn't sure who's going to be throwing it.

When a bad offense meets a bad defense you can usually expect a bad game.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

New Orleans lost by one to Detroit, in overtime, on the road. A moral victory? Sure. But moral victories don’t show up in the standings. Meanwhile, Baltimore spent Sunday running through Indianapolis, 41-23, like the Colts owed them money. Alvin Kamara's knee and Zay Flowers' hamstring invite the injury report into the chat, but traders aren’t too high on the Saints chances of denting the start of the Jesse Minter era.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Minnesota opened by hanging 39 on Green Bay in a game that featured three touchdown passes from Carson Wentz off the bench. Chicago put up 59 of its own in a 59-37 track meet with Carolina. The question isn't so much who will win or lose, it's will either punter get a chance to play in this game?

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Cincinnati opened with a 33-27 win over Tampa. Houston lost a shootout to Buffalo, 36-31. Both units can score, and both can also give up points. The Texans have the excuse of going up against the NFL’s best quarterback. The Bengals can’t say that about Baker Mayfield, who fumbled three times and handed them the game.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Pittsburgh handled Atlanta, 20-13, the kind of boring, grind-it-out win Steelers fans have learned to live with. New England lost the opener 13-10 in Seattle and are wondering if they anointed Drake Maye as their savior a bit too soon. Call it a chess match if you want, but don’t be surprised when both offenses show up to play checkers.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Green Bay gave up 39 to Minnesota against a backup quarterback and will look to get right against the Jets, who have a history of helping opponents do exactly that. The Jets beat Tennessee 23-10, leaving them in the unfamiliar position of being undefeated and at the top of their division, a place the markets don’t predict they will stay at for long.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Cleveland lost 34-10 to Jacksonville and remains the place NFL quarterbacks go to die. Tampa Bay lost 33-27 to Cincinnati in a game that they quite literally fumbled away. One team needs to learn how to move the ball. The other needs to simply learn how to hold onto it.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET

Philadelphia survived Washington, 24-22, a close divisional win that resulted in fewer dogs getting kicked than usual in Philly last Sunday. Tennessee lost to the Jets, 23-10, a season opener that puts them squarely in the lead of the Arch Manning sweepstakes. Traders have Philly fans and PETA feeling pretty good going into this matchup.

Sunday, 4:05pm ET

Jacksonville flattened Cleveland, 34-10. Denver opened by losing to Kansas City, 31-10. Last year Jacksonville won in Denver, 34-20, in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. So naturally Jacksonville should be favored, right? Somebody should tell the traders, because Denver is at 59%.

Sunday, 4:05pm ET

Las Vegas beat Miami, 27-13, but mostly because Miami is terrible. The Chargers lost at home to Arizona, 26-14, a team that might be terrible, but we don’t know yet because the Chargers were awful. The Raiders arrive at SoFi where they will play their annual home game in an away stadium. Chargers fans are few and far between, and after last week, there are even fewer than usual.

Sunday, 4:05pm ET

Seattle beat New England, 13-10, a gift courtesy of Drake Maye’s three 4th quarter interceptions. Arizona upset the Chargers, 26-14, and if they are for real they make the NFC West the toughest division in the league. Both sit at 1-0, and some people are already calling this an early NFC West statement with a straight face, until they remember it’s Drew Lock vs. Jacoby Brissett.

Sunday, 4:25pm ET

Washington lost by two in Philadelphia, 24-22, in a game where basic competent football was clearly optional. Dallas lost to the Giants, 28-20, and gets to start the season in a familiar place… looking up in the NFC East standings. Someone will win this game and this division, but don’t expect much more after that.

Sunday, 4:25pm ET

Miami lost to Las Vegas, 27-13, and is looking for answers they can’t seem to find. San Francisco beat the Rams, 27-7, and immediately graduated to serious-contender treatment. Traders have the 49ers well clear of the Miami Dolphins, who, pardon the dad joke, might start losing on porpoise to land the number one draft pick.

Sunday, 8:20pm ET

Indianapolis got run over by Baltimore, 41-23, and the prognosis is negative. Kansas City ran over Denver, 31-10, and it looks like Walker can really run. NBC has scheduled what will either be a genuine upset bid or a three-hour autopsy narrated by Chris Collinsworth. Traders like the Chiefs and NBC viewers like the mute button.

Monday, 8:15pm ET

New York beat Dallas, 28-20, and the "New York is back" industry was open for business by the second half. Los Angeles lost to San Francisco, 27-7, and now has to answer “big questions” about a season that's six percent complete. Traders like the Rams, New Yorkers like the Giants and nobody likes Pat McAfee on the pre-game show.

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