Kirk shooting suspect arrested as Patel, Bongino face scrutiny

A suspect in the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk is now in custody, President Donald Trump said Friday morning, saying there was a “high degree of certainty” that the gunman has been apprehended. According to CNN, the man allegedly confessed to his father, who alerted authorities before the arrest.

The announcement comes at a pivotal moment for FBI Director Kash Patel, whose handling of the high-profile investigation has drawn sharp criticism from across the political spectrum. Patel mistakenly declared earlier this week that the shooter was already in custody, only to walk back the statement hours later, Politico reports. The New York Times also detailed tense exchanges with FBI agents after the misstep, as Patel lashed out at subordinates and vowed to end what he called “Mickey Mouse operations.”

For markets, the episode has reinforced questions about the durability of Patel and his deputy, Dan Bongino, inside the Trump administration. Traders on Kalshi have nudged both men’s odds of leaving office this year higher, though the probabilities remain modest.

The Kalshi market on who might exit the administration shows Bongino at 28% and Patel at 16%, roughly in line with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., another senior Trump appointee. The figures represent a noticeable rise since mid-August, when Patel traded closer to 8% and Bongino around 20%. But despite the uptick, traders still suggest it is more likely than not that both remain in place through 2025.

The case against Patel stems not just from the Kirk investigation. He is already under pressure over lawsuits alleging politically motivated firings at the bureau, as well as from discontent among both FBI veterans and Trump allies about his decision to limit disclosure of Epstein files. Patel is scheduled to testify before Congress next week, where he is expected to face pointed questions from both Democrats and Republicans.

Bongino, meanwhile, has battled his own controversies. Earlier this summer he called for Attorney General Pam Bondi to resign over the Epstein matter, prompting speculation about his standing inside the administration. Although he appears to have weathered that storm, the White House recently installed Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey as an additional deputy director at the FBI, a move widely seen as curbing Bongino’s authority.

Kalshi pricing reflects these pressures but also the broader political reality: Trump has so far stood by both men. Patel maintains backing from influential figures such as Rep. Jim Jordan, who praised him this week as “doing a great job.” That kind of support may help explain why traders have stopped short of pricing in higher odds of an imminent ouster.

Still, as the Kirk investigation unfolds under the glare of national attention, traders will be watching closely. Market odds suggest Patel and Bongino face rising but contained risk. They may be vulnerable to further missteps, but do not appear to be in any imminent danger of dismissal.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

Sources: CNN, Sept. 12, 2025; Politico, Sept. 11, 2025; New York Times, Sept. 11, 2025.

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