Two candidates with strong ties to President Trump will face off on Saturday in the Louisiana Republican Senate runoff. Incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy, a vocal combatant of President Trump within the GOP, failed to advance to the runoff after the initial May primary. Julia Letlow, the Trump endorsement in the race, will take on John Fleming, the Louisiana state treasurer, in the bayou state.
Julia Letlow nearly won the primary outright in May after capturing over 45% of the vote. Letlow has served as the representative for Louisiana's 5th district since her victory in 2020 when she became the first Republican woman to represent the state of Louisiana in the House of Representatives. Not only was Letlow endorsed by Trump, she was encouraged to enter the race from President Trump.
On Monday, Letlow had over a 95% chance of winning the nomination. However, at the moment, she currently has a 85% chance of winning on Saturday.
John Fleming edged out Bill Cassidy capturing 15,000 more votes during the initial May primary. Before serving in the Trump administration, Fleming served in the House of Representatives for Louisiana's 4th district, where he was one of the founding members of the House Freedom Caucus. Despite not receiving the Trump endorsement, Fleming has attempted to appeal to Trump voters saying that he is "much more Trump aligned than Julia Letlow."
Currently, the markets give Fleming a 17% chance to win the nomination on Saturday.
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