Kalshi traders forecast a Miami-Indiana title matchup

With another explosive playoff round in the books, the national title game is less than two weeks away. However, before we get to the 2025-26 national championship in South Florida, we’ll see two semifinal games (Jan. 8-9) that are sure to deliver.

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With only three days left until the action resumes, No. 1 Indiana (14-0) and No. 10 Miami (FL) (12-2) are viewed by Kalshi’s traders as the two teams with the highest probability of advancing to the title game.

This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.

Notably, Indiana currently has a 65% likelihood to play for the natty this season. That number shot up on New Year’s Day following their dominant Rose Bowl victory over the University of Alabama. As recently as December 30, IU was listed with a 40% probability in this market.

The University of Miami is also a favorite. After consecutive upset victories, Kalshi has Miami (FL) trading at 58¢ to qualify for the championship game. To make matters more intriguing, U of M would have the unique benefit of hosting the 2025-26 title bid at Hard Rock Stadium if they can get there.

Rounding out the market, we see two fierce competitors in No. 5 Oregon (13-1) and No. 6 Ole Miss (13-1). Kalshi currently gives Mississippi a 40% chance to advance from next week’s semifinal, while UO is tagged with a 38% chance to do the same. Keep in mind, both of these institutions were trading for under 20¢ here less than three weeks ago.

With both sides coming off thrilling upsets, Miami and Ole Miss will next head to State Farm Stadium for what will likely be a thrilling postseason battle. Kickoff from the desert is set for Thursday, January 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET. 

Kalshi’s traders are pricing a 60% winning probability for Miami in this game, up only slightly from its opening clip of 56%. Within this market, U of M is projected to emerge victorious by 3.5 points (Yes 50¢). The combined total is presently showing 51.5 points (Over 50¢), which is noticeably higher than Oregon-Indiana.

Head coach Mario Cristobal’s defense has come alive at the best possible time. Their collective performance last Thursday versus OSU is one that will live forever in the program’s decorated history. After holding the Ohio State offense to just 45 rushing yards (and registering two takeaways), how will the U respond in Glendale?

Undoubtedly, what Ole Miss has accomplished in the current campaign is one of the top stories of the year. Mississippi has showcased an electric offense behind a scoring clip of 37.6 PPG. Division-II transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is a living legend in Oxford, and his 376-yard performance in the recent victory over the University of Georgia cemented that. Since losing Coach Lane Kiffin to LSU, this group has not missed a step.

Miami-Mississippi presents many interesting angles. Both squads are firing behind an underdog mentality. Ole Miss is the last remaining team from the bruising SEC, while Miami was the only ACC school to qualify for the playoffs. The U has not lost since an early November trip to Southern Methodist. Across the way, Mississippi, after outlasting UGA, has the confidence to avenge its only loss of the season.

Keep an eye on Miami’s defensive back Keionte Scott on Thursday evening. The senior safety tallied four tackles and one interception (that went for a 72-yard touchdown) in the marquee win against OSU. Standing at six-feet even, Scott is a hybrid athlete that can present various difficult formations for Chambliss and the “Hotty Toddy” offense.

Undefeated Indiana will take on fellow-Big Ten foe Oregon for the second time this season on Friday, January 9 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.

IU outlasted Oregon, 30-20, two and a half months ago. Things have certainly changed since then, but Kalshi’s traders are predicting a 62% likelihood for Indiana to defeat Oregon again. IU is also favored to win by 3.5 points (54¢). This market reflects a total of 46.5 points.

Indiana’s momentum and dominance are undeniable. Head coach Curt Cignetti’s group came out firing at the Rose Bowl, as they were the only team with an opening-round bye that advanced to the semifinal. IU managed to hold Alabama to less than 200 total yards of offense, and this group will look to inflict similar pressure on a talented Oregon offense.

Oregon is also powered by a mighty defense. In historic fashion, UO just pitched a shutout to get by explosive Texas Tech. They forced a handful of turnovers versus TTU. Will that trend continue against Indiana’s efficient style of play?

Per ESPN’s SP+ rankings, Indiana (1) and Oregon (3) are both listed as top-three squads within FBS. However, this game may come down to which offense makes the least mistakes.

Heisman Trophy-winner Fernando Mendoza (89.5 QBR) was the most productive quarterback in Division-I football this year. Mendoza’s 36-6 TD-INT ratio is a prime example of that. Across the way, Oregon quarterback Dante Moore (79.0 QBR) is an incredibly gifted player. Still, Mendoza’s side has bested Moore’s side in both prior meetings (including Cal’s 33-7 win over UCLA in 2023).

The competitor in Moore will drive him to produce his best effort next Friday evening in Atlanta. However, Indiana’s defense will do all it can to force the sophomore signal caller into committing multiple turnovers, just as he did at Autzen Stadium last October.

With Ohio State bounced, we will see a new champion of college football for the fourth consecutive year (and seventh different winner of the past eight seasons). Indiana has since surged to 44¢ in Kalshi’s college football championship market, which leads the field by a considerable margin. Subsequently, Miami (22%), Oregon (21%) and Mississippi (14%) are all priced under a quarter to go the distance.

The two victors from the semifinal will be propelled to the national title game at Hard Rock Stadium on Monday, January 19. Whichever way you slice it, a monumental finish is on the horizon!

Kalshi markets now forecast:

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