Kalshi’s 2025 college football postseason guide: Round 1

After weeks of anticipation, the college football postseason has finally arrived. Round one of the playoffs will commence this evening (Dec. 19) with a rematch between the University of Alabama and the University of Oklahoma.

(Click here to trade on all of this weekend's playoff games.)

It feels as if a historic tournament awaits. 2025 is only the second year of the expanded playoff field, now consisting of 12 schools. Byes are awarded to the top-four seeds, which in the current campaign, have been earned by No. 1 Indiana (13-0), No. 2 Ohio State (12-1), No. 3 Georgia (12-1), and No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1), while the remaining eight teams are in action this weekend.

After Alabama-Oklahoma on Friday, Saturday will present a trio of games featuring Miami (FL)-Texas A&M, Tulane-Ole Miss and James Madison-Oregon. And similarly to college basketball's March Madness, the winners here will advance while the losers head into the offseason.

This weekend’s opening-playoff round will culminate in the 2025-26 CFP National Championship at Hard Rock Stadium on January 19. More on that later, as it’s best we approach this field one bid at a time. Here is a game-by-game breakdown of the first round, utilizing Kalshi’s markets.

_{This is an opinion and not financial advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any college, conference, athletic organization, league, broadcaster, or event referenced.}

As noted, Friday night will bring a rematch one month in the making, pitting together No. 9 Alabama (10-3) and No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2). Unlike OU's 23-21 road win in November, the action will take place at Norman’s Memorial Stadium with kickoff set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.

Kalshi’s traders have this game projected as the narrowest of the opening round, as both Alabama and Oklahoma are trading at 50¢. That market has been incredibly tight since opening. The schools have swapped as favorites on many occasions, and neither has attracted a probability north of 52%. 

In 2025, Bama and OU are two programs led by elite defenses. Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has guided his team to strong results, as they are allowing only 17.4 PPG. Conversely, Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables has his group operating at a high level, surrendering just 13.9 PPG.

Alabama’s defense is especially prolific at shutting down the QBs. Led by junior defensive back Bray Hubbard (66 tackles, four INTs and six PDs), Bama is giving up only 157.7 yards per game, which is a top-10 clip in FBS.

Across the way, Oklahoma puts its own sort of fear into opposing offenses. OU is fiercely stout up front, and that is exemplified by sophomore defensive lineman Taylor Wein (16 TFL). As a group, Oklahoma has held others to 81.4 rushing yards per game: fifth in Division I.

This meeting of historic football institutions will not disappoint. Remember: these two schools have produced 11 combined Heisman Trophy winners. The fanbases are as proud as they come, and that will be reflected in Norman come Friday night.

For a fun secondary Kalshi market on Alabama-Oklahoma, you can trade on what the television announcers will say. Familiar football phrases like “Roughing the passer” (47%) and “Tush push” (23%) are both present, among many others.

In Saturday’s early slot, No. 10 Miami (10-2) will visit No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1) at Kyle Field in College Station; tune to ESPN/ABC at 12 p.m. ET for the opening kick.

Currently, Kalshi’s traders price in a 60% chance for Texas A&M to defeat Miami. That is down only slightly from A&M’s market peak of 62.7% on December 14. From there, the home team is favored in this game by 3.5 points, which is trading at 48¢. The total is at 48.5 points (Over 49%).

Historically, the University of Miami has faced Texas A&M in football on five separate occasions, going 3-2 in the process. The last meeting between these universities was in 2023, wherein Miami was victorious at home by a score of 48-33. However, the U has not won a game on the gridiron in College Station since 2008.

TAMU head coach Mike Elko has this program in a prominent position. As with his previous stops, the offense in College Station is top-tier. Texas A&M is producing 36.3 PPG in 2025. Much of that has been powered by a bruising running game, as they are churning out 192.7 rushing YPG. Quarterback Marcel Reed, halfback Le’Veon Moss, and halfback Reuben Owens have all scored at least five touchdowns on the ground.

Miami enters this playoff clash in Brazos County with a fairly well-rounded squad. Senior quarterback Carson Beck (165.8 passer rating) is U of M’s most notable player at this time, but this group is anchored by defensive lineman Akheem Mesidor and safety Keionte Scott, who have combined to produce 10 sacks and 22 TFL. Overall, Miami has held its opponents to only 13.8 PPG in 2025.

A win Saturday would be a major moment in the history of Texas Agricultural & Mechanical University, and Kalshi’s markets are leaning toward exactly that.

For a contest that is projected to be a little more one-sided, look out for No. 11 Tulane (11-2) taking on No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Kickoff in Oxford is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET with TNT serving as the broadcaster.

Mississippi is trading at 89¢ on Kalshi, which has held fairly steady since opening. Moreover, Tulane has not managed a probability higher than 20% in this market, which happened over 10 days ago. In terms of the spread, Mississippi is projected to win by 17.5 points (50¢).

We are witnessing one of the most decorated football seasons that the University of Mississippi has ever produced. Ole Miss bulldozed through a gauntlet schedule in 2025, scoring 37.2 PPG en route. Still, Lane Kiffin notably departed to fill LSU’s head coaching vacancy, which means defensive coordinator Pete Golding will lead the program going forward.

Tulane University is another school embarking on a historic campaign. After closing the regular season by winning eight of nine games, Tulane is hoping to be just the second Group of Six team to earn a CFP victory. Regardless, Kalshi traders price TU at 13¢ to upset Mississippi.

It is unlikely that Tulane can weather Ole Miss’ dynamic offense. Mississippi has shelled out 498.1 total YPG, which is the second-highest clip in FBS. Sophomore running back Kewan Lacy is the team’s engine, as he has already amassed 20 touchdowns and over 1,400 all-purpose yards.

Tulane is geared behind dual-threat senior quarterback Jake Retzlaff (135.9 passer rating). A transfer from BYU, Retzlaff earned respect in New Orleans this year by tossing 14 TD to go with 16 additional rushing scores. Simply, Retzlaff will need to have the performance of his life to escape Oxford with a win.

Out west, prepare to see No. 12 James Madison (12-1) battle with No. 5 Oregon (11-1) in Eugene. This will be Saturday’s college football nightcap, kicking off from Autzen Stadium at 7:30 on TNT.

From a trading perspective, James Madison-Oregon is the most unbalanced game of the first round. Oregon has a 92% winning likelihood.

James Madison University has not seen its price rise above 8¢ in this market. Incidentally, UO is favored by 20.5 points here (53¢). The total for this game is set at 47.5 points, to which Kalshi traders give the over a 49% probability.

When referencing ESPN’s SP+ rankings, the University of Oregon (fourth) is a whopping 20 spots ahead of James Madison. Oregon also places higher than the University of Georgia (fifth) — one of the schools with an opening-round bye — on that same scale.

UO head coach Dan Lanning and his group bring prior playoff experience. As such, Oregon now has a bit of unfinished business. This team is led by a ferocious defense that is incredibly athletic. Oregon’s secondary is elite, as they have surrendered only 144.3 passing YPG. From there, 10 different players have registered an interception.

James Madison is slightly better on offense than defense. In 2025, head coach Bob Chesney’s group thrived behind the rushing tandem of quarterback Alonza Barrnett III and tailback Wayne Knight. The two have accumulated 23 touchdowns on the ground.

JMU should win its share of series on Saturday, but ultimately, can its defense contain Oregon quarterback Dante Moore? The sophomore signal-caller has compiled a 167.3 passer rating this season, and his 24-6 TD-INT ratio was exemplary of that. 

To reiterate, this weekend’s playoff action will eventually lead to the 2025-26 national title game. Ahead of round one, Kalshi’s market has defending champion Ohio State (30%) as the favorite. OSU, giving up just 8.2 PPG right now, has been a perennial frontrunner all year long. They have traded above 12¢ since February 21.

Behind Ohio State, undefeated Big Ten champion Indiana is priced at 21¢ to win the upcoming national title. IU football has produced one of the best sporting stories of the decade, particularly when you consider that they were tagged with only a 3% probability to win it all as recently as October 7. Indiana University’s success was greatly represented in quarterback Fernando Mendoza receiving the Heisman Trophy last Saturday.

Kalshi traders have Georgia listed as the third-most likely school to hoist the next natty, pricing “Yes” at 17¢ before learning of their next opponent. Head coach Kirby Smart and UGA — who last won the title in 2022 — always present a formidable challenge on the gridiron. With a suffocating defense that allows only 79.2 YPG rushing, Georgia must be respected.

Kalshi’s college football championship market also features Big 12-winner Texas Tech and aforementioned Oregon, showing an 11% possibility for both universities. After that, no other team is priced above 10¢ at this time.

With the top four seeds diligently watching this first round, there is still much to be determined. Thankfully, the second-round matchups (set for Dec. 31-Jan. 1) will be arranged soon enough.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

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