Director Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated 14 times for an Academy Award across several categories, including Best Director and Best Screenplay, but he has never won an Oscar. However, Kalshi traders think that could finally change on Sunday.
Best Director
The director of One Battle After Another is the heavy favorite in the Best Director market at 92%. Sinners director Ryan Coogler trails with 9%, followed by Hamnet director Chloe Zhao at 2%.
Anderson has been racking up some key awards leading up to the Oscars. In February, Anderson took home the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement, the BAFTA for Best Director, and the Golden Globe for Best Director for One Battle After Another.
What’s with the snubs?
Anderson is one of Hollywood’s most critically acclaimed directors and screenwriters with Oscar-nominated films such as Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, Licorice Pizza, and Phantom Thread already on his resume.
So why hasn’t Anderson won an Oscar?
He’s had to face some stiff competition at the Academy Awards over the years. The Ringer’s Kyle Wilson chronicled all of Anderson’s Oscar losses. In 2007, Anderson lost the Best Director award to Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men, which also won Best Picture. Anderson was nominated for Best Director again in 2018 for Phantom Thread, but he lost to Guillermo Del Toro for The Shape of Water, which also won Best Picture.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Anderson isn’t just up for a Best Director Oscar. Traders also expect Anderson to pick up an Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay. One Battle After Another is currently priced at 96%, followed by Hamnet at 4%, and Guillermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein at 1%.
The 98th Academy Awards air at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT on ABC. The Oscars will also stream on Hulu, YouTube TV, AT&T TV, and Fubo.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict:
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