The end of this year’s pro football season is rapidly approaching. And this Sunday’s AFC and NFC championship games will determine who will earn a trip to the 2026 championship in Santa Clara.
(Click here to trade on this Sunday’s conference championship games.)
First up, we’ll see New England and Denver at Mile High, where a resurgent New England has a 69% chance of victory, according to Kalshi traders. From there, Seattle and Los Angeles will meet in the Pacific Northwest, wherein Seattle’s chances of winning are priced at 58%.
Aside from markets on the individual games, Kalshi also offers a market on which two teams will make it to this year’s championship. It currently shows a 42% chance of a New England-Seattle matchup.
Let’s take a closer look at what is likely in store according to Kalshi’s markets.
As mentioned above, Kalshi’s traders have a New England-Seattle scenario priced at 42¢. However, New England-Seattle was given a likelihood of only 11.8% as recently as January 16.
Notably, the season-ending injury to Denver quarterback Bo Nix last weekend served as the catalyst for New England’s recent surge. On January 12, Denver was viewed as the AFC favorite, and New England was priced at only 23¢.
Supporters of Seattle would revel at a shot versus New England in the pro football championship. Ironically, Seattle lost to New England, a team that boasts more Lombardi Trophies than any other franchise, in its last big-game appearance (2015). Many remember that title matchup for New England cornerback Malcom Butler’s goal-line interception.
New England and Los Angeles met in a championship game back in 2019. Fast-forward, and these two sides now have a 30% chance to clash in Silicon Valley next month.
New England-Los Angeles is the second-most probable option for this market, since Kalshi’s traders think it’s more likely that LA upsets Seattle, compared to Denver upsetting New England.
Los Angeles and New England are both powered by prolific quarterback play. When looking at Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye, the two signal callers are listed first and second on Kalshi’s pro football MVP board.
Denver and Seattle are each led by dominat defensive fronts, so traders should not be at all surprised if this winds up being the big-game matchup in 2026. Presently, there is an 18% chance that both Seattle and Denver make it to Santa Clara.
As recently as January 17, “Denver vs. Seattle” peaked in this market at 31¢. Still, Denver’s chances have taken a dive since then (see Bo Nix’s ankle injury). Even with Denver playing at home on Sunday, traders are bullish on New England in the AFC championship.
Seattle has only won one league title. Notably, that pinnacle win came against Denver back in 2014. More recently, Denver and Seattle played head-to-head in September of 2024. Seattle also earned the victory that day, winning 26-20.
Denver vs. Los Angeles is presently viewed as the least likely potential big-game matchup, trading at just 13¢ on Kalshi. This result would require upsets in both conference championships this Sunday.
On December 1, Denver-Los Angeles peaked in this market at 20¢. However, stellar play by Seattle and injuries to Denver have caused this option to zig-zag its way to its present spot.
These two organizations have never met in the Big Game. But both teams have won league championships within the past 10 years. Los Angeles bested Cincinnati for a Lombardi Trophy in 2022. Further back, Denver defeated Carolina in 2016. Coincidentally, that was also the last time the Big Game came to Levi’s Stadium.
The takeaway:
As the respective favorites in the conference championship round, Seattle and New England are viewed as the most probable (42%) participants in the upcoming Big Game.
Much of New England’s recent rise in the market can be attributed to Denver being forced to go forward with second-string quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
Seattle’s standing here makes sense when you consider how efficiently they have operated in 2025. However, Kalshi’s traders find it more likely that LA upsets Seattle on the road as opposed to Denver upsetting New England at home.
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Big Game 2026 matchups:
Pro football champion:
(Click here to trade on this Sunday’s conference championship games)
Follow Gabriel Santiago on Instagram: @ByGabrielSantiago
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