Congress faces a potential funding showdown over the war in Iran as lawmakers approach a December deadline to prevent another government shutdown
Kalshi traders currently price the probability of a government shutdown beginning Dec. 12 at 43.8%.
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Congress faces December funding deadline
Lawmakers must approve new funding legislation by Dec. 11 to prevent a lapse in federal operations.
CNBC reported that the 119th Congress faces a crowded agenda before its term ends, including several major legislative priorities beyond government funding. Other priorities include the National Defense Authorization Act, permitting reform legislation and a bill governing college athletes’ name, image and likeness rights.
Funding legislation will likely require bipartisan support in the Senate, where most measures need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.
“Democrats are unlikely to negotiate a full year of government funding before the new Congress is sworn in, given that they will soon hold commanding majorities in both chambers and can use that to leverage concessions from the White House,” Politico wrote.
Some Democrats favor a short-term funding extension that would give the party greater negotiating leverage when the new Congress convenes.
Politico reported that Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., who is expected to chair the Senate Appropriations Committee in the next Congress, supports a short-term funding extension before lawmakers negotiate full-year spending bills.
“Voters handed us a huge mandate to write these bills that reflect their priorities,” Murray said. “So how we can lower costs and end corruption and end the war in Iran, the best way for us to do that is to do a short-term CR and then write these funding bills for next year.”
Bloomberg reported that Democrats are also considering using the shutdown deadline to put pressure on President Donald Trump over the war in Iran. If Democrats decide to confront Republicans on the issue, “it could trigger the fourth full or partial government shutdown of Trump’s second term.”
The strategy carries political risks. Bloomberg noted that recent shutdowns have rarely produced the policy concessions sought by the party attempting to block funding.
“One option is to try to force the issue now, in order [to] try to quickly bring the war to a conclusion and ease pressures on prices, including on gasoline and diesel,” Bloomberg wrote. “The other would be to wait until next year, when the party’s landslide midterm victories take effect and flip both the House and Senate majorities in their favor.”
Will the government shut down in 2027?
The chances of a government shutdown next, year after the new Congress takes over, are significantly higher.
The Kalshi market for a 2027 government shutdown is priced at 76.6%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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