TIME’s annual Person of the Year will be named by mid-December, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is currently the favorite to win the honor at 25% odds in the Kalshi market.
But the blue wave from the midterm elections has boosted a few other politicians into competition: Texas Sen.-elect James Talarico has jumped to 20% odds, while Michigan Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed is now trading at 19%.
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Zohran Mamdani
Mamdani won the mayoral election in a historic November 2025 vote, and assumed his position on Jan. 1, 2026. Elected at age 34, he is the second-youngest person to ever assume the NYC mayor’s office.
Mamdani is currently leading the Person of the Year market at 25%. He has been the front-runner for the prize for the entirety of the Kalshi market being live, though his odds dropped slightly after the midterm elections on Nov. 3, 2026 as newly elected senators have gained momentum.
Running on a democratic socialist agenda, his first year in office has seen policy changes for the five boroughs. Mamdani has expanded access to universal child care, made major infrastructure updates, lowered the crime rate, and established rent stabilization and affordable housing plans. A Siena Research Institute poll published at the end of October listed his city voter approval rating at 69%, an increase of 9 points over the previous month.
Mamdani has been the subject of major media coverage, but his ability to do business with and win the favor of opposition leaders like Donald Trump has boosted his public persona.
In April, TIME named Mamdani one of the 100 most influential people of the year where they deemed him “a force in Democratic politics for years to come.” While that list is not necessarily a precursor or a short list for the Person of the Year award, it indicates that the magazine’s editorial board views him as a contender.
James Talarico
On midterm election day, Talarico became the first Democratic senator-elect from Texas in almost 40 years. At 37 years old, Talarico will be the youngest senator in Congress, and his historic win has boosted his odds to become TIME’s Person of the Year to 20%.
While Talarico hasn’t taken office yet, traders are bullish on his chances to be Person of the Year due to flipping the former Republican stronghold blue. A former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, Talarico won about 1 in 10 Republican voters, according to the AP Voter Poll, and his win has lifted his national prominence significantly. Talarico has already filed to run for his Senate seat again in 2032.
Abdul El-Sayed
Like Talarico, El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan also made history: He became the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate. El-Sayed’s strong campaign, which overcame a late endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers by former Democratic primary opponent Haley Stevens and attacks on his faith from Republican figures that Democrats called Islamophobic, has boosted his odds in the Person of the Year market to 19%.
As a newly elected senator, El-Sayed hasn’t had the opportunity to deliver on his campaign promises of “money out of politics, money in your pocket, and Medicare for all.” But the message seems to have resonated with both Michigan voters and on the national stage, as some Reddit boards are already discussing his potential presidential future.
Other contenders
Other big Democratic winners from the midterms are also populating the Kalshi market, including Kansas Sen.-elect Adam Hamilton at 14%, South Carolina Sen.-elect Annie Andrews at 14%, Iowa Sen.-elect Joshua Turek at 12%, and Mississippi’s first Black Senator-elect since Reconstruction Scott Colom at 11%.
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney is also trading at 11%, buoyed by his resistance to Trump’s tariffs.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also in the market with 10% odds. He was also listed in the TIME100 list in April, marking his fifth time being named one of the 100 most influential people of the year.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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