SpaceX is preparing to launch its Starship rocket Friday from its Starbase facility near Brownsville, Texas, on a flight that will attempt to catch both the Super Heavy booster and Starship's upper stage at the launch site. Kalshi traders favor a launch, though SpaceX had not yet received the required Federal Aviation Administration license as of Friday morning.
Kalshi's Flight 15 market shows a 72% chance of launch before Saturday, 83% before Sunday, and 97% before Dec. 11.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Expectations for Starship launches in 2026 are also down.
Kalshi's projected number of Starship launches that reach space in 2026 has fallen from 8.6 to 3.8.
SpaceX targets historic double recovery on Flight 15
Flight 15 will test whether SpaceX can recover both the Super Heavy booster and Starship's upper stage for reuse.
Reuters reported that the mission will carry Starlink satellites while testing whether SpaceX can catch Starship's upper stage at its launch site rather than allowing it to splash down in the ocean.
“That makes the mission both a revenue-generating endeavor for its satellite connectivity business and a high-stakes test for a rocket still in development,” Reuters reported.
The launch could face a delay because SpaceX had not yet received the required Federal Aviation Administration license as of Friday morning.
CNN reported that this launch is considered the “holy grail” of space travel because it would eliminate the need to discard multimillion-dollar rocket parts after a single mission, which SpaceX CEO Elon Musk hopes could lower the cost of a launch by orders of magnitude.
If both recovery attempts succeed, Flight 15 would mark the first time SpaceX has caught both stages of its Starship system at the launch site.
Space.com reported that the two planned recoveries would occur approximately 22 hours apart, with the Super Heavy booster returning shortly after launch and Starship's upper stage returning Saturday afternoon.
The New York Times reported that NASA is also keeping an eye on this launch. In 2027, NASA will launch its Artemis III mission, where astronauts will practice docking procedures in Earth orbit with Blue Origin’s Blue Moon and Starship. Artemis IV in 2028 will attempt to land astronauts on the Moon’s south pole.
You can watch the launch and landing on SpaceX.com and the official X page for SpaceX.
Will SpaceX go to Mars?
Kalshi traders are considerably less confident about a crewed mission to Mars, assigning a 12.4% probability that SpaceX will launch humans toward the planet before 2030.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Brandon Bell
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
