Haley Stevens has the top odds among lawmakers who could switch parties

Kalshi traders are pricing the chances that prominent members of Congress will switch parties or leave their current party affiliations.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens leads the market at 14%, followed by Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski at 7.3% and outgoing Republican Rep. Thomas Massie at 4.9%.

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Michigan Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens drew attention shortly before Election Day when she withdrew her endorsement of Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and endorsed his Republican opponent.

The BBC reported that two days before Election Day, Stevens took back her endorsement of the Democratic Senate candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, and gave it to his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers.

During an interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper, Stevens was questioned about reportedly telling Rep. Debbie Dingell the night before her announcement that she would not endorse Rogers. 

“Abdul has been getting angrier and angrier,” Stevens said. “I was trying to help. I endorsed him. That ad was very painful. There are so many Democrats who want to vote for our Democratic nominee, and they were just being told, ‘Hey, this is a party you don’t belong in’ and ‘This is a campaign you don’t belong in.’”

Stevens posted a statement on her X page discussing the controversial ad from the Rebellion PAC. Stevens claimed the ad “tells Michigan families they cannot afford groceries because their money has to be set aside ‘for killing Palestinians’ and it blames our close ally Israel for everything Michiganders cannot afford.”

The New York Times reported that El-Sayed told reporters he disinvited Stevens from a campaign event at a Detroit church. Two days later, Stevens changed her endorsement.

The Alaska senator has called out President Trump on several different issues.

NPR reported that she became the first Republican senator to call for President Trump’s resignation following the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol.

Politico reported that she was among seven Republican senators who voted to convict President Trump during his second impeachment trial for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection, saying that he “played a key role in instigating the riots.”

NBC News reported that she spoke out against the SAVE Act, a bill that would require proof of citizenship nationwide for people to cast their vote in elections. She said the SAVE Act and similar proposals would effectively federalize elections, something Republicans opposed when Democrats advanced election legislation in 2021.

The Kentucky representative lost his primary bid after President Donald Trump endorsed his opponent. Trump endorsed Massie's primary opponent following a series of disagreements with the Kentucky Republican over legislation and foreign policy.

The PBS News Hour reported that Massie’s path to defiance started when he voted against President Trump’s tax cut bill. He also spoke out against Trump’s military operations in Iran and Venezuela, and “routinely” voted against foreign aid packages, including to Israel.

Massie is best known for his stances on the full release of the Epstein files. Politico reported that he just filed a discharge petition in the House that could force a vote later this month.

The bill attached to the petition “allows survivors of Epstein’s abuse and state attorneys to file federal lawsuits against the Justice Department to force the release of additional materials related to Epstein, among other measures. It also gives members of Congress the ability to demand unredacted files from the department.”

Traders give Democratic Sen. John Fetterman a chance of switching parties and becoming the Republican nominee for his Senate seat in 2028.

Kalshi’s Pennsylvania Republican Senate nominee market shows Fetterman at 15%, second behind Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick at 23%. Rep. Dan Meuser follows at 13%.

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