Strait of Hormuz recovery odds fall as Kalshi traders push timeline to late summer

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed sharply, and Kalshi markets expect a slow recovery.

Odds of an early recovery fell across key Kalshi markets tracking when Strait traffic will return to normal. Traders price the chance of traffic returning to normal before August at 44%, before September at 54%, and before October at 62%.

Traders also do not expect many transit calls to make it through the Strait of Hormuz due to the ongoing conflict with Iran. The market for the strait's traffic between April 27 and May 3 shows a price of 72% for more than 40 transit calls, 26% for more than 50 calls, and 10% for more than 60 calls.

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are escalating, with both sides reporting attacks.

The New York Times reported that the United Arab Emirates claimed its Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, the largest oil zone in the UAE, was attacked by Iran, effectively ending the ceasefire between the two countries.

The U.S. military also reported that it hit six Iranian military boats as well as "missiles and drones aimed at ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz."

Meanwhile, The Independent reported that President Trump issued another threat that Iran would "be blown off the face of the Earth" if it continued to block U.S. vessels.

Traders also do not expect the U.S. and Iran to reach a nuclear deal any time soon. Markets now price a new nuclear deal before September at 37%, before 2027 at 51%, and before 2028 at 65%.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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