Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump’s tariffs this Friday?

Several news outlets are speculating that the Supreme Court will issue a decision on President Donald Trump’s tariff policies this Friday. But Kalshi traders are pricing in a healthy dose of skepticism about that timeframe.

Market odds imply a ruling is likely before April, with traders pricing that particular outcome at 83%. The market also shows a 62% chance for a tariff ruling before March 1. However, odds of a ruling on or before this Friday are only at 32%, or slightly less than one in three.

While traders are somewhat divided on when the court will make its decision, there is a clearer consensus on how they will rule.

The market now shows only a 72% chance that the Supreme Court will rule against the Trump administration when it issues its decision.

Another market forecasts that three of the nine Supreme Court Justices will vote in Trump’s favor on the tariffs case.

In a recent New York Times op-ed, Stanford Constitutional Law Center director Michael W. McConnell called the case “the biggest separation-of-powers controversy since the steel seizure case in 1952.” The steel seizure case refers to President Harry Truman’s attempt to take control of the nation’s steel mills to ensure the supply of armaments for the Korean War.

The Supreme Court first heard arguments over Trump’s tariffs in November of last year. Trump and his team contend that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) gives him the authority to impose sweeping tariffs on other countries.

Despite the court’s 6-3 conservative majority, several conservative justices pressed Solicitor General John Sauer on the scope of the president’s tariff authority. The BBC reported that Chief Justice John Roberts questioned the breadth of the administration’s argument, warning that “The justification is being used for power to impose tariffs on any product from any country in any amount, for any length of time.”

Judge Neil Gorsuch also said he was “struggling” to buy Sauer’s arguments. A ruling in Trump’s favor, Gorsuch suggested, could permanently shift Congress’s constitutional role in regulating foreign commerce.

“What would prohibit Congress from just abdicating all responsibility to regulate foreign commerce?”

But despite the apparent skepticism on display during oral arguments, traders still think there is a 28% chance the court rules in Trump’s favor, which is slightly better than a one in four chance.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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