With the World Cup in full swing, it’s fair for sports to be on the top of everyone's mind. But the reality is, if you try to bring up sports at the dinner table one more time, your girlfriend is going to break up with you.
But ladies and gentlemen, I have some good non-sports related news for you. Taylor Swift’s wedding is back in the news! More importantly, the markets around her wedding are booming, so you can finally put your (or your girlfriend's) autistic Swifty knowledge to good use. Let’s get into it.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice.
Taylor Swift Wedding
To be honest, before I began researching this newsletter, I really didn’t know much about TSwift. I’ve gained some surface level knowledge over the last couple years. But I was completely unprepared for how f**king deep the lore around her life goes.
For those of you who are uninitiated, Taylor Swift incorporates “easter eggs” into legitimately every facet of her life. Rather than just announce albums or projects, she hides clues into everything she does, requiring her army of fans to spend months decoding her message.
Her albums all have a distinct color palette, so fans will analyze her outfits to try and figure out the upcoming one. And speaking of outfits, prior to an album release, she may even incorporate jewelry into her wardrobe that will be referenced in upcoming songs.
So given the fact that she’s spent over a decade making her life a detective’s wet dream, it makes sense everyone is trying to figure out what's happening with her wedding.
The first piece of the puzzle is figuring out when she will actually get married. And as the chart above demonstrates, almost everyone is in agreement that the wedding is likely to occur this year.
Where will Swift get married?
The second piece of the puzzle is figuring out where the two are going to tie the knot. Earlier this month, traders were pretty evenly split between the event occurring in Rhode Island where she owns a vacation home, and New York, the city where she’s primarily lived and grown her career.
But after the mayor of New York, Zohran Mamdani, hinted to the fact that the event could take place on July 4th weekend in NYC, the Big Apple quickly became the favorite.
That leaves the question, if you were Swift, what NYC venue would you possibly use? Most ultra-rich would probably opt for the Plaza Hotel, Cipriani, or even the New York Public Library. These locations often host multimillion-dollar weddings.
But many fans are speculating Taylor will opt for something entirely unheard of, hosting her wedding in Madison Square Garden (MSG). And honestly this kinda makes sense.
She’s one of the largest performers of all time, and what’s more show girl than hosting your wedding on a stage most performers can only dream of playing on? Aside from it being perfectly showy, it also hosts underground tunnels and built in security.
Groomsmen and bridesmaids
Now that the when and where are mostly settled, the real fun begins: who's actually standing up there with them?
Jason Kelce is the runaway favorite by a wide margin, which makes plenty of sense given he's Travis's brother. Right behind him is Austin Swift, Taylor's actual brother, proving traders think family takes priority over football.
From there it gets tighter: Patrick Mahomes is a strong bet given how close he and Travis are, with Aric Jones and Kumar Ferguson trailing not far behind as more speculative picks. And then there's Harrison Butker, sitting at the bottom of the board, the rare instance of traders being almost unanimous that someone won't make the cut.
The bridesmaids race is more interesting. Abigail Anderson Berard, one of Taylor's longtime best friends, leads the pack by a comfortable margin. Right behind her is Ashley Avignone, another close friend who's been a fixture at Taylor's side for years.
From there it gets genuinely tight: Este Haim and Selena Gomez are tied further down the list, two more names from Taylor's close circle of friends. Rounding things out is Kylie Kelce, whose odds make sense given just how entangled the Kelce and Swift families have become over the past two years.
Who will attend?
Jack Antonoff is the near-unanimous pick to be there, which tracks given he's basically a member of the family at this point. Patrick and Brittany Mahomes aren't far behind him, and the rest of the top of the board is filled out with Taylor's usual circle of friends.
Further down the list, things get a little more random, with Harry Styles, Lorde, Florence Welch, Blake Lively, and Katy Perry all sitting in the long tail. Bringing up the rear, in a tie, are Justin Trudeau and Lions QB Jared Goff, which is a wild pair to see at the bottom of a Taylor Swift guest list.
Keep in mind, although Taylor does layer in clues and mystery into her works, she also tends to try and keep her personal life pretty private. For all we know, she may skip the US entirely and end up gallivanting on an island in Greece. But if you want to have any shot at a good prediction, stop reading this and go ask your girlfriend. Odds are she’s a way better detective than I’ll ever be.
And if you don’t have a significant other that’s a swifty, you can always just track the private jets of Taylor and Travis’ likely bridesmaids/groomsmen. If they all take off towards NYC, you probably have your answer.
Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
