The Chicago Marathon

The week just started, but there’s already a lot going on.

Earlier today, the Supreme Court rejected an appeal from Ghislaine Maxwell, who was sentenced to 20 years for trafficking underage girls with Jeffrey Epstein (Click here for all our Epstein markets).

Meanwhile, in Virginia, the Democratic nominee for attorney general is under fire from all sides after a leaked text message showed him wishing death upon a rival Republican’s children (Yes, we have a market for that race).

Last but not least, President Trump continues to claim our nation’s major cities are war-ravaged hellholes, and is pushing to expand his deployment of the National Guard to Portland and Chicago.

But none of that stuff is any fun! So instead, let’s talk about Taylor Swift’s mention markets!

This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.

Last week, Taylor Swift released her latest album, The Life of a Showgirl, which quickly sold 2.7 million copies on its first day. Now, in an effort to keep the hype train rolling, the world’s most famous pop star is appearing on several late-night talk shows that no one but your grandma watches (unless President Trump tries to take them off the air). Tonight, she’ll be on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, and on Thursday, she’ll be on Late Night with Seth Meyers. And if you think you know what she’s going to talk about, now is your chance to cash in with our Taylor Swift mention markets.

Last Thursday, I spoke with several veteran Kalshi traders, most of whom expected the ongoing government shutdown to be relatively short and sweet. But since then, our market forecast has spiked, and now predicts a deal won’t be reached until day 21. That would tie the record for the second-longest shutdown, which was set in 1996. Is the market overreacting, or will this mess continue to drag on? Click here to trade.

10.6.25

Yesterday, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem called Chicago a “war zone,” as odds of the Trump administration deploying National Guard troops to the city surged past 90%. Yet despite the ongoing carnage, nearly 2 million spectators will descend on the war-torn city this Sunday for the Chicago Marathon. The event is famous for world-record performances thanks to the city’s flat terrain, which helps explain why more than 50,000 runners will risk life and limb to participate.

Unfortunately, I can’t trade on it, but if I could, my money would be on the Kenyan. No, the other Kenyan (not trading advice). Click here to see the current market pricing.

📈 Market roundup

Key events this week

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

🚨 New & notable…

🎲 Terry's trades...

Random markets Terry would love to trade if he didn't work here.

🗞️ Kalshi in the news

In September, with the [pro football] season underway, more than $2.5 billion of sports contracts were traded on Kalshi, the largest such market.

On this live episode recorded in Chicago, we speak with Tarek Mansour, the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, one of the prediction market platforms that's booming.

Users on Kalshi…increased their [trades] after the Labor Department said it won’t release Friday’s key jobs report, watched closely on Wall Street, in the event of a shutdown.

CNBC

📣 Big announcements this week

We have lots of big announcements coming later this week, but for now, I’m not allowed to talk about them. So instead, please enjoy this video about railroad track ballast.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realOldTerry
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.

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