The week ahead: peace talks, political trolls, and college tailgates

Normally, I spend about 25 hours a week badgering LLMs to create images for this newsletter, because it is my firm belief that people enjoy looking at really stupid pictures.

And based on the image above, California Governor Gavin Newsom agrees.

The shape-shifting Sacramentonian is once again attempting to transform his ever-changing image, this time into an online troll who mockingly mimics the style of President Trump.

And for now, it seems to be working, at least among Dems.

Earlier this summer, Newsom was neck-and-neck with AOC and Pete Buttigieg in our 2028 Dem nominee market. But thanks to his new "troll" persona, coupled with his high-profile threats of congressional redistricting, he currently has a one in five chance of winning the nomination.

Of course, it's only 2026, so a lot is likely to change between now and 2028. Besides, are voters really going to rally around a vain, shallow opportunist with weird hair? I have my doubts. No one wants a guy like that in the White House.

In the aftermath of Friday's meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, some critics argued little, if any, progress was made.

Well, if that's the case, can these same critics explain why Trump's chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize skyrocketed from 12% to 13%?

OK, that's not a good sign. But the odds of a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, which is probably a better metric, have actually improved, and are now at 46%. That's still not great, but considering it was at 13% in early August, it's a big improvement.

Will today's Trump-Zelenskyy meeting further improve those odds or kill the momentum?

Don't ask me. I just work here.

Have you been enjoying preseason football? That's OK, no one has. But hopefully our preseason football markets have made it a little more tolerable.

Either way, our long national nightmare is almost over, because this Saturday, College Football returns.

Currently, Texas is the favorite to win it all, with traders pricing their chances at 15%. Obviously, it's good to be the favorite, but there's still an 85% chance they don't take home the title. After all, there's a very long season ahead. And from individual games, to conference titles, to the championship itself, Kalshi lets you trade on everything.

🗓️ Monday

🗓️ Wednesday

🗓️ Thursday

🗓️ Friday

🗓️ Saturday

🗓️ Sunday

New markets you might have missed.

Random markets Terry would love to trade if he didn't work here.

— The WSJ

— The Daily Mail

— NewsNation

Last week, Activision began a huge marketing push for Call of Duty: Black Ops 7. First came posters for a fake robotics company called The Guild.

Next, there were spoofed magazine covers (do they still make magazines?).

They even staged an IPO, complete with a fake CEO who looked suspiciously like Pete Hegseth, only more put together.

Last, and perhaps most importantly, they added even more realism by creating a meme Kalshi market on whether the U.S. military will use robot soldiers by 2035.

You cannot trade it (our lawyers made sure of that), but Kalshi is now officially part of the Call of Duty canon.

Click the X embed above to see our market featured in the game’s newest trailer.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realOldTerry
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}