The Week ahead: World Cup, Wimbledon, and heatwaves

Good evening traders,

We hope you all were able to get some rest over the weekend because you'll likely need it for everything happening this week. The elimination stage of the FIFA World Cup is underway and Wimbledon has begun amidst a heatwave scorching much of Europe (and likely coming to the U.S.).

So before you get the tabs on your computer setup for switching between work, tennis, and soccer, let's take a look at the week ahead.

While we're going to mainly focus on what's coming up this week. It's worth acknowledging the crazy feats we saw last week during the group stage.

Lionel Messi made history after scoring 2 goals that moved him past Miroslav Klose's record of 16 goals in the men's World Cup.

This not only secured Argentina first place in Group J putting them past the group stage, but also sent Messi's odds in Messi vs Ronaldo: World Cup Goal Contributions soaring through the roof.

England stalled against Ghana, ending the match with a 0-0 draw, but South Africa managed to break through and clinch a spot in the knockout stage for the first time in program history with a win over South Korea that took place in Mexico.

Now, if you think what happened last week was crazy, just wait until this week. The knockout stage is underway in the Round of 32. The winners of the group stage were determined based on a format of points primarily determined by the number of matches won (+3 points) and tied (+1 point).

There are a ton of rules for what happens when there's a tie in points, and while we're sure you'd love for us to crack open the FIFA rulebook, we aren't going to. In the Round of 32, the winner is simply determined by who wins each match. If you win, you move on. If you don't, you go home.

Now, obviously, every player wants to win each game of the World Cup for their nation very badly. But the knowledge that if you lose, you have to wait four more years to play in another World Cup means players play even more passionately, and therefore crazier stuff is bound to happen.

The Netherlands, one of the tournament's strongest attacking sides, plays against Morocco, which spent the group stage proving that it could compete with elite teams. The winner of that matchup will likely have a relatively favorable path to the quarter-finals when they face Canada, a team that has gone surprisingly far in the tournament so far compared to their historical runs.

In addition, the United States will play Bosnia and Herzegovina. For American fans, a defeat would spell major disappointment, but victory for fans of the opposing teams would be cause to celebrate for a long time.

Regardless of who you're rooting for in the FIFA World Cup, there's a ton of markets you can trade on Kalshi while you're totally working and definitely not switching between tabs when your boss walks by.

Wimbledon Men's and Wimbledon Women's began this Monday, and they're bringing tradition alongside extremely high-stakes tennis to the famous grass courts of the All England Club.

On the men's side, defending champion Jannik Sinner is entering as the top seed, though his path doesn't look too comfortable. Novak Djokovic, a seven-time Wimbledon champion, is in the same half of the draw and therefore the possibility of a semi-final showdown between the two is possible. Notably, Djokovic is 39 years old now and still chasing what would be a record-extending 25th Grand Slam.

On the women's side of the tournament, the defending champion Iga Swiatek is returning but will face stiff competition from World Number 1 Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff, and Mirra Andreeva.

Just to add another level of pressure to the tournament, Sabalenka and Rybakina are competing for the Number 1 ranking. The craziest, and arguably coolest, story pertaining to all of this surrounds someone even older than 39-year-old Novak Djokovic, though: 44-year-old Serena Williams.

Though traders don't place her odds of winning high, the seven-time Wimbledon champ is returning to singles for the first time since the U.S. Open in 2022. She'll face stiff competition in the first round from Australian Maya Joint, but the fact that a legend decided to come back is something worth tuning in for and watching.

If you're reading this from the EU, you've probably had to wipe the sweat off your forehead 5 times since you opened this newsletter. Joke aside, Europe is dealing with one of the most intense heatwaves the continent has ever recorded.

Temperatures have soared above 40 C (104 F) in parts of France, Spain, and Italy, with temperatures rocketing as much as 18 C (64 F) higher than historical averages in other parts of the continent. In the natural progression of world events, what starts in Europe heads west, so a major heatwave is expected to hit the U.S. this week.

While a major point of concern for public health officials is the lack of air conditioning in European countries, that shouldn't be an issue for the Americans likely to be impacted by the heat dome coming over the Central and Eastern United States. Their concern for the U.S. regards something that happened 250 years ago.

Just as the heatwave is set to peak, millions will be traveling and spending time outdoors for the 4th of July celebrations. Usually, the only cause for concern is firework accidents or falling off your friend's boat when you have too much to drink. But with the heat dome expected to peak in humid areas of the country towards the end of the week, when celebrations are taking place, there is concern about things like dehydration and heat stroke that pose a risk to public health.

Fortunately, those concerns can be mitigated by staying hydrated and indoors, where, coincidentally, you can trade climate-related markets on Kalshi while beating the heat.

Whatever event you plan to tune into, it's bound to be exciting, and so are the Kalshi markets related to it. We hope it's a good week.

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

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