Happy Tuesday,
This week has some big and exciting markets in store.
Government unemployment numbers come out on Friday, the first preseason pro-football game kicks off Thursday night, and later today, SpaceX has its first earnings call.
Speaking of earnings, today Kalshi is also launching its all-new Public Companies Hub, your one-stop shop for tracking corporate metrics during earnings season.
So we’re not gonna waste any time getting into it.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.
SpaceX's earnings call and Kalshi's new 'Public Companies Hub'
Traders on Wall Street and Kalshi alike are anticipating the SpaceX earnings report, which is set to be released after market close later today. Unlike other calls, this one will center on not just the company, but a man. And this particular man is someone that people usually either love or hate: Elon Musk.
As you likely already know, SpaceX went public this year in the largest IPO in history, and peaked at a market cap of nearly $2.8 trillion. Shortly after peaking, the share price began to fall, and eventually dropped below its IPO price of $135. It now sits at about $115.
Regardless of what you think of Elon, whose net worth is about half of what it was two months ago, SpaceX is a megacap in a world far from its peers. The business is spending billions of dollars each quarter, and as much as people care (or don't) about standard financial metrics, many investors are focused more on Elon's vision of building data centers in space, colonizing Mars, and building AI models to rival Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI.
While it's ambitious to do any of those individually, doing all of them at once is a level of audacity that could only be attributed to one man. So depending on what Elon says during the earnings call, the share price could react drastically.
Adding to the craziness is the fact that the report triggers the first tranche of staggered insider share unlock, meaning insiders will have the opportunity to sell up to 20% of their eligible locked-up shares on August 6th, well before the 180 day restriction period on selling ends. Notably, Elon is excluded from the accelerated schedule and is subject to the full restriction period despite more windows for sale opening as the 180 day since IPO mark approaches.
While nobody can be sure of anything that will happen when earnings go live later today, you can find all the information you need ahead of today's SpaceX Earnings Call at Kalshi's Public Companies Hub, a single destination that combines KPI markets, mention markets, and historical performance data alongside links to earnings call livestreams. The hub is live now on Kalshi's web and mobile apps and API, and continues Kalshi's expansion into a full-service financial exchange.
July Jobs/Unemployment
Typically on the first Friday of each month, the U.S. jobs report is released at 8:30 AM ET by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now in August, the report coming out on Friday details important metrics for July, namely unemployment.
Unemployment is a critical economic indicator because it gauges the overall health of the job market and the economy as a whole. Importantly, the new Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh and other Fed members will likely be paying attention. Though Warsh has put more emphasis on what he will do with interest rates compared to his predecessor Jerome Powell who put more focus on the labor market, the Fed has a dual mandate, and actual authority to do things that alter both.
In addition to unemployment, jobs numbers serves as a useful metric because an increase can show businesses expanding and strong consumer demand. Alternatively, a decrease, especially month after month, can be indicative of an economic downturn.
Preseason Football: Arizona vs. Carolina
The NFL Preseason starts this Thursday with the Carolina Panthers playing the Arizona Cardinals in the Hall of Fame Game played at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio.
Traders are pretty evenly split between whether they think the Panthers or Cardinals will come out on top. With preseason NFL games being primarily about giving rookies and new roster members the chance to play and show off their skills in real games, the real excitement concerns the players fighting for a roster spot as opposed to established stars.
Carolina has already announced that Bryce Young amongst other starters will not play, allowing Kenny Pickett and Haynes King to play the first and second halves of the game respectively. Carolina is looking to build a dependable backup behind Young and Pickett likely won't have to throw for 5 touchdowns to get named that slot. King is being viewed as much more of a developmental player who is fresh out of school, athletic, and could potentially rise to a solid role in the team.
Arizona is starting fresh with new head coach Mike Lafleur after finishing last in the NFC West with a record of 3-14. Though the play calling will likely be pretty basic, Thursday offers the first real glimpse at how LaFleur structures the offense and handles running the team. How much insight can really be gained from this game for the Cardinals is debatable as Marvin Harrison Junior, whom a lot of the offense revolves around, likely won’t play much if at all. With their offensive line having undergone some restructuring as well, Arizona’s offense will either be one that you enjoy watching, or really don’t.
Kalshi’s American Power Index (KPOW) Update
In the last week, KPOW, Kalshi's American Power Index, has moved 0.7 points towards the Democrats. While KPOW still leans towards the GOP, the Democrats' odds of retaking the Senate have moved to their highest point since May 2026. Democrats have a 47% chance of winning the Senate and an 84% chance of winning the House.
Voters in Michigan head to the polls today for primary elections in the Midwestern swing state. The Michigan Senate race is a key seat for Democrats to hold in their quest to take back the Senate. Haley Stevens, who is endorsed by retiring Sen. Gary Peters, has only a 2% chance of beating progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. The winner will head to the general election in November against the unopposed GOP candidate, Mike Rogers.
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📅 THIS WEEK
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Tuesday - August 4
Wednesday - August 5
Thursday - August 6
Friday - August 7
Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
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