We’re just a few hours away from tonight’s 98th annual Academy Awards. But traders are already predicting exactly who will be walking down the red carpet tonight.
Who will be there?
Leaders in the market include Heated Rivalry star Hudson Williams, whom traders have priced at 97%. TMZ spotted Williams and his co-star Connor Storrie, who is priced for attendance at 26%, at the CAA pre-Oscar party with François Arnaud, who is rumored to be dating Storrie.
One Battle After Another nominee Leonardo DiCaprio is priced at 96%, even though there are signs he might not attend tonight’s Oscars. The Hollywood Reporter reported in February that DiCaprio had to miss the 32nd annual Screen Actors Guild Awards because he was in the middle of filming Martin Scorsese’s new film What Happens at Night.
Other high-ranking stars who are expected to attend tonight’s Oscars include Kylie Jenner at 98% and Zendaya at 95%.
Who won’t be there
Sean Penn leads the low end of the attendance spectrum at 28%, which dropped 24 points in one day. Variety columnist Daniel D’Addario penned an essay imploring Penn to attend tonight’s Oscar ceremony since he’s expected to win a Best Supporting Actor Oscar for his role in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another.
Penn has failed to show up to the awards five times when he was nominated. He also didn’t show up to the SAG Awards and the BAFTAs, even though he won awards at both.
Other attendees priced as long shots include Sinners’ star Hailee Steinfeld at 21%, Ryan Gosling at 12%, Kevin Hart at 9%, Taylor Swift at 8%, and Olivia Jade at 4%.
Conan O’Brien’s monologue
Tonight will also be Conan O’Brien’s second time hosting the Academy Awards. Last year, he received wide acclaim for his job as MC. The Hollywood Reporter’s Daniel Fienberg wrote, “Even if I’d have trimmed several of his extended gags, I thought he came across like somebody who has hosted shows and hosted them well in the past. Which he is.”
Traders are also trying to predict what topics he’ll mention in his opening monologue. “AI” or “Artificial intelligence” is running at 70%, followed by “Hulu” at 46% and “Podcast” or “Podcaster” at 30%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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