Things may have been close in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin Governor, but Kalshi’s market now shows a much wider margin for the general election.
In the wake of last night's victory, Democratic candidate David Crowley surged ahead of Republican candidate Tom Tiffany in the Wisconsin Governor's race market, and is now priced at 78%.
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David Crowley
While several left-leaning candidates have won primaries in state-level elections across the country, Crowley, a moderate Democrat, managed to hold the line. Politico reported that Crowley defeated the progressive candidate Francesca Hong by a margin of just 0.4%. Kalshi traders had priced Hong’s chances at over 95%.
Crowley secured the win after a last-ditch effort with retiring Gov. Tony Evers to paint Hong as too extreme, and therefore, unelectable in a battleground state that President Donald Trump won by just shy of 30,000 votes in 2024.
The win came despite Crowley having dropped out of the race in early July after he said he thought he would "not be the Democratic nominee for Governor," only to return to the race a few weeks later.
Hong had clear support among progressive voters, but also carried political baggage that may have played a role in her loss. She became a target among Republican leaders for past comments she made on social media about calling “to end Thanksgiving,” criticizing “Valentine’s Day” and describing an experience at a restaurant in which she said she felt uncomfortable sitting next to “many old white people who didn’t think we spoke english [sic],” according to a story in The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
“The result is a major blow to progressives’ hopes that a Hong victory would demonstrate the movement can deliver big wins in battleground states and pave the way for a progressive in the 2028 presidential race,” Politico wrote.
Tom Tiffany
Wisconsin’s Democratic primary may have been close, but the margins were much wider in the Republican primary.
The New York Times reported that Tiffany won his primary with 95.3% of the vote.
Tiffany has close ties to President Donald Trump and received an endorsement from him during his primary campaign. He has also taken standard Republican stances on issues like lower taxes, greater protections for farmers and their land, and being "a bulwark against 'big-government socialism.'" Tiffany vowed to call out "the craziness of the left and the common sense that we're going to bring to Madison" during a recent campaign stop, characterizing both Democratic primary candidates as people who "wanted to empty prisons and abolish the police" and describing the Democratic primary as "a race to the left."
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Crowley becoming Wisconsin Governor: 78%
Tiffany becoming Wisconsin Governor: 23%
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: David Crowley
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