Best Actor Oscar odds: Michael B. Jordan remains the favorite

Ahead of Sunday’s 98th Academy Awards, Kalshi traders price Michael B. Jordan as the favorite to win the Best Actor Oscar.

(Click here to see all our Academy Award markets in Kalshi’s 2026 Oscar Hub.)

The Sinners star currently has a 56% chance of winning the award, just ahead of Marty Supreme’s Timothée Chalamet, who sits at 37%.

Meanwhile, Leonardo DiCaprio, who is nominated for his role in One Battle After Another, sits well behind the two at 7%.

Chalamet was the odds-on favorite for months leading up to the ceremony. But last Saturday, the odds flipped and Jordan’s price rose as high as 60%.

Sinners is a real contender at this year’s Oscars, receiving a total of 16 nominations, the most of any Oscar-nominated film in the history of the Academy Awards.

It’s also become one of the most critically applauded films of 2025. The Hollywood Reporter’s David Rooney called it “an evocative portrait of life in the Jim Crow South,” and “a pulpy explosion of vampire horror,” and “an allegory for the struggle for freedom.”

Director Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, a big screen retelling of Thomas Pynchon’s humanist rebellion novel Vineland, received the second-most nominations for the 98^th Academy Awards. Sean Penn, who plays the film’s villain, is the current favorite on Kalshi’s market for the Best Supporting Actor.

Penn currently sits at 76%, ahead of Stellan Skarsgård (14%), who is also nominated for his role in the drama Sentimental Value.

Delroy Lindo, who received his nomination for his role in Sinners, is priced at 9%.

We’ll find out on Sunday who wins the markets and the Oscar when the 98^th annual Academy Awards airs at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT on ABC. The Oscars will also stream on Hulu, YouTube TV, AT&T TV, and Fubo.

Kalshi markets now predict:

(Click here to visit Kalshi’s 2026 Oscar Hub.)

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