Update (8:21 PM ET): Sean Penn has won the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards for his role as the villainous Colonel Lockjaw in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Penn entered the ceremony as the favorite on Kalshi, where traders had priced his chances of winning at 77%. The win follows a tight market race earlier in awards season with Sentimental Value nominee Stellan Skarsgård before Penn pulled ahead in the final weeks. His performance as the film’s ruthless antagonist had been widely praised by critics and helped anchor one of the most nominated films of the night.
We’re just a few hours away from the 98th Academy Awards. But Kalshi’s Oscar markets are already pricing clear favorites for many categories, including Best Supporting Actor.
Let’s take a closer look at what may be in store for Hollywood’s biggest night.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
Best Supporting Actor
Sean Penn, who plays the main antagonist in director Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, is the current favorite to win a Best Supporting Actor Oscar later this evening. His chances are currently priced at 77%.
Stellan Skarsgård, who is nominated for his role in the Swedish drama Sentimental Value, follows Penn at 15%. Kalshi traders also give Sinners’ Delroy Lindo a 10% chance of winning the award.
The lead in the Best Supporting Actor market has flipped between Penn and Skarsgård three times since the nominations were announced back in January.
One Battle After Another
The critics have been overwhelmingly positive for Anderson’s latest Oscar-nominated film. It’s received a total of 13 Oscar nominations and currently has a 94% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Critics have also singled out Penn’s performance as the evil Colonel Lockjaw as one of the film’s best performances.
Brian Tallerico of RogerEbert.com praised Penn’s performance. He wrote that Penn “flexes his muscles, grits his teeth, and growls his lines, but somehow threads the needle between truth and caricature. He’s a ridiculous human being who wants nothing more than the power that men achieve when they’re able to destroy not just everything around them but history.”
Best Actor Oscar
Meanwhile, Michael B. Jordan has emerged as a slight favorite in the Best Actor category for his performance in Sinners. His current odds are priced at 52%.
Timothée Chalamet, who is nominated for his role in Marty Supreme, trails Jordan with odds priced at 38%, followed by Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another at 7%.
The 98th Oscars airs on Sunday at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT on ABC. You can also watch the ceremony on streaming services including Hulu, YouTube TV, AT&T TV, and Fubo.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict:
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