Kalshi markets sharply lowered the odds that President Donald Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship will take effect before August, dropping to 7% after Wednesday’s Supreme Court hearing.
The Supreme Court heard arguments on Wednesday over the administration’s effort to end birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants and temporary residents. The case could determine whether the policy can be enforced while legal challenges continue to play out.
Several justices across the ideological spectrum expressed skepticism, raising concerns about both the scope of executive authority and the practical challenges of enforcing the policy. During arguments, justices questioned how citizenship status could be determined at birth and whether the order conflicts with long-standing constitutional precedent.
President Trump, responding to the case, recently posted on Truth Social that the 14th Amendment’s birthright citizenship “is not about rich people from China, and the rest of the world (sic), who want their children, and hundreds of thousands more, FOR PAY, to ridiculously become citizens of the United States of America. It is about the BABIES OF SLAVES!”
The 14th Amendment
The case centers on the interpretation of the 14th Amendment, which has long been understood to guarantee citizenship to nearly all individuals born on U.S. soil.
President Trump issued the executive order on Inauguration Day 2025, prompting immediate legal challenges from Democratic-led states and immigration advocacy groups.
Some conservative justices have previously signaled openness to revisiting long-standing interpretations of the 14th Amendment, though the Court has not directly ruled on the issue in this context.
Voter registration
Alongside the court battle, lawmakers are pursuing related changes to citizenship and voting requirements.
The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility, or SAVE America Act, would require anyone registering to vote in federal elections to provide proof of citizenship to cast a ballot, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Traders appear skeptical that such a requirement will be enacted. The proof of citizenship requirement market shows just a 24% chance that it will be enacted before next year, with just a 4% chance it will happen before May of this year.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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