In the wake of recent killings of U.S. citizens by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, Border Patrol Commander-at-Large Greg Bovino is being reassigned from Minnesota to his original post in El Centro, California, The Atlantic reports. The move comes amid growing public backlash against ICE, and calls for DHS Secretary Kristi Noem’s resignation.
Greg Bovino
In Kalshi’s “Who will leave the Trump Administration this year?” market, Bovino is currently the top choice at 83%, while Noem and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt are the second and third most likely to exit, with odds of 59% and 54%, respectively.
Kalshi’s Rules summary for this market states that “cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure and the natural expiration of a term.”
Kristi Noem
While Bovino is being pulled from Minnesota, President Donald Trump is still publicly supporting Noem, telling reporters on Tuesday that she was doing “a very good job.”
However, the president’s recent support has not convinced many traders that her job is secure. Noem currently has a 34% chance of becoming the first person to leave Trump’s Cabinet.
In another, Noem-specific market, the DHS head has a 47% chance of leaving her role before July of this year, and a 25% chance of leaving before March 1.
Pam Bondi
Kalshi has Attorney General Pamela Bondi priced at 46¢ to be out prior to December 31. Subsequently, Bondi is also priced as a frontrunner to be the first person to leave Trump’s Cabinet, with a 20% chance.
FBI Director Kash Patel also has a 45% likelihood to leave his post this year. Late in 2025, rumors circulated that there was a plan to remove Patel due to alleged misuse of bureau resources. Still, Trump claimed last November that no such plans existed.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Who will leave their role in the Trump Administration this year?
Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Kristi Noem out as DHS Secretary?
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