Chris Cillizza is a veteran political analyst with more than two decades of experience covering politics for major news outlets including The Washington Post and CNN. He joins Kalshi News as a guest commentator covering the 2026 midterms. Follow him on Substack and YouTube.
Ask a casual political observer about the most important Senate race in the country and you’re very likely to get one of two answers: Michigan or Texas.
Which I get!
Texas is now officially the most expensive non-presidential race EVER – Ad Impact sets the price tag at $573 million – and Republicans look to be on course to lose their first statewide contest there since 1994(!).
And, in Michigan, the last-minute endorsement switcheroo by Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens – who STUNNINGLY backed former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers on Sunday – is soap-opera stuff.
But the real sharps, the people looking for the signal in the noise, have their eyes on two slightly less high profile Senate races: Kansas and Iowa.
Why? Because both states are reliably Republican territory but have been hit hard by President Trump’s tariffs, the escalating cost of diesel fuel due to the ongoing war in Iran and the president’s decision to allow 300,000 tons of foreign beef to be imported into the U.S. without tariffs.
And both races are now moving toward Democrats in Kalshi’s markets with Election Day just 24 hours away.
Let’s break them down one by one.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Kansas Senate
Start in Kansas where the history is decidedly daunting for Democrats. Trump carried the state by 16 points in the 2024 presidential election and Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in the Sunflower State since 1932!
This may well be the year when Democrats break that 96-year drought due to a series of unfortunate events for Republicans.
First, as I mentioned above, Trump has made a slew of policy decisions that hit farmers very, very hard. Which has led many people involved in the agricultural community to rethink their past support for Republicans.
Second, Sen. Roger Marshall has turned out to be one of the worst candidates in the country. He already had a reputation for not spending enough time in the state – he has a vacation home in Florida – and has reacted very poorly to finding himself in a contested race.
Marshall is now running an ad in which he addresses allegations from a New York Times story published months ago about how, as a doctor, he aggressively sought late payments – even for small sums of money – from patients. WHY!?!
The Senator also proclaimed at a campaign event late last week that “this is one of the best economies of my lifetime.” Huh? And did I mention he praised Vice President Mike Pence for his work on the campaign trail for him? (Who wants to tell him?)
Third, Democrats found the perfect candidate in pastor Adam Hamilton. Hamilton, who leads the largest church in Kansas, has proven to be an excellent first-time politician, who has made it difficult for Marshall to cast him as just another wacky liberal.
Hamilton's odds passed 50% for the first time on Kalshi late last week and, in the wake of a New York Times poll released this weekend that had Hamilton up 49%-44% over Marshall, the Democrat is now at a 64% probability of winning.
Iowa Senate
In Iowa, the trend line in Kalshi markets is the same – good for Democrats – even if the race has played out very differently.
Unlike Marshall’s campaign buffoonery, Rep. Ashley Hinson has run one of the best campaigns of any Republican Senate candidate this cycle.
And Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek has been similarly good – relentlessly staying on message and smartly choosing issues – immigration and the border, most notably – to break from his national party.
What’s similar in this race to Kansas is the national playing field on which it is being fought. Hinson has struggled mightily to overcome growing disappointment and anger from farmers toward Trump.
Hinson was among the first Senate GOP candidates anywhere in the country to break publicly with Trump on the war in Iran – calling on the president to end the conflict and work aggressively to lower prices for the average American.
For me, the Iowa race is the fulcrum on which the Senate will tilt Tuesday.
If Republicans win Iowa, it tells me that the national environment – while not good for the GOP – wasn’t totally disastrous. And in an environment like that, I think Democrats win, at most 52 Senate seats.
But if Hinson loses, the opposite is true – the political environment is so toxic that not even a VERY good GOP candidate can win in a state that Trump carried by 13 points less than two years ago. And that means Democrats could wind up with north of 55 seats if everything falls right for them.
I expect this to be the closest Senate race in the country. The final New York Times poll in the race had 48% for Turek to 47% for Hinson.
Kalshi traders are almost evenly divided on the Iowa contest; Turek currently has a 53% chance of winning to 47% for Hinson.
Look: Texas and Michigan are going to get the lion’s share of the TV coverage. But, real heads will be watching Kansas and Iowa. Those are the two contests that will tell us everything we need to know about what sort of night it’s going to be for the two major parties.
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
