Croatia needs a win in Philadelphia today to keep its World Cup fate in its own hands, while Ghana can advance with nothing more than a draw. Kalshi traders give Croatia a 55% chance to win, with a tie at 30% and Ghana at 17%.
The match kicks off at the same time as Panama vs. England in New Jersey, where Thomas Tuchel's side need only avoid defeat to top the group regardless of what happens in Philadelphia.
Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
What's at stake in Group L
England sits atop Group L on four points, ahead of Ghana on goal difference after a 4-2 win over Croatia and a scoreless draw with Ghana. Croatia trails both on three points after splitting its first two matches, while Panama is winless and eliminated.
England wins the group with a win or draw, or if Ghana fails to beat Croatia; Ghana advances with a result of its own; Croatia needs a win and an England slip to control its own fate. Kalshi traders give Croatia an 84% chance to advance overall, but a win over Ghana is the only outcome that secures it outright.
Croatia and Ghana meet for the first time
Croatia's group stage has swung between extremes. England routed the Vatreni 4-2 in the opener, with Baturina and Musa scoring first-half equalizers around two Harry Kane goals, before Croatia steadied with a 1-0 win over Panama on a second-half finish from substitute Ante Budimir. Luka Modric made his 200th international appearance in that win, just the fourth player to reach the milestone.
Ghana, meanwhile, has built its four points on defense. The Black Stars haven't conceded in either match, beating Panama 1-0 before holding England scoreless despite just 21% possession. Today marks the first World Cup meeting between Croatia and Ghana.
England looks to close out the group
England can clinch top spot today and needs only a draw against Panama to guarantee advancing. Kalshi traders give England an 86% chance to win, with the draw at 11% and Panama at 5%.
England and Panama have met once before at a World Cup, a 6-1 England win in 2018. Panama has been more competitive this time, losing both group matches by a single goal, but Kane, Bellingham, and Rashford all scored in the Croatia opener, and a similarly comfortable scoreline today would put the group title beyond doubt.
Group L winner
England is an 89% favorite to win Group L outright on Kalshi, with Croatia at 8%, Ghana at 4%, and Panama at 1%. The gap reflects England's goal difference as much as today's matchups, since even a Ghana win wouldn't be enough without an England loss or draw.
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Fanny Schertzer
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Any opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
