Last Friday, Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire thanks to SpaceX's IPO. Could he become the first person to reach a net worth of $2 trillion?
That feat would require adding the combined wealth of Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffett to his nearly $1.3 trillion-dollar fortune. Many Kalshi traders seem to think it’s possible.
Trillionaire x 2?
The market for predicting Musk's net worth before the end of the year currently forecasts a net worth of $1.66 trillion. But Kalshi traders also believe there's a 24% chance of the tech tycoon reaching a net worth surpassing $2 trillion.
Trillionaire contenders
For the moment, Musk stands alone as a trillionaire, with fellow Masters of the Universe trailing hundreds of billions of dollars behind him. According to Forbes, the world’s second-richest person is Google co-founder Larry Page with around $300 billion to his name.
Musk’s likelihood of crossing that $2 trillion threshold has more than doubled in recent days as SpaceX’s stock price has continued to soar. During today's stock trading, SpaceX briefly became America's fourth-biggest company, surpassing both Microsoft and Amazon.
Kalshi traders believe it's nearly guaranteed Musk ends the year with more than $1.3 trillion to his name, awarding that possibility a 99% chance. There's an almost one-third chance in the market that Musk possesses more than $1.8 trillion at the end of 2026.
Musk’s 42% stake in SpaceX, which has a market valuation of around $2.8 trillion, makes up a majority of the mogul’s net worth. That sprawling company now encompasses X, his social network, as well as Starlink, the satellite internet company, and Grok, the artificial intelligence chatbot.
The DOGE co-founder’s 12% stake in car manufacturer Tesla is valued at around $150 billion. His positions in other companies, such as Neuralink, the brain-reading implant company, and The Boring Company, which constructs tunnels, are valued at less than $10 billion combined.
Musk’s wealth in June
Looking in the near term, Kalshi traders believe there's a 50% chance Musk’s net worth by the end of June exceeds $1.3 trillion, which is around where it stands today. They also give him a 35% chance of his net worth staying above $1.4 trillion by the end of the month.
It's not just Musk attaining newfound wealth from SpaceX’s public market debut. His company is likely to mint more than 4,000 millionaires, according to an analysis from Hill.com. But none come close to the DOGE co-founder’s nearly trillion-dollar windfall from the IPO.
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