Emmy Odds: Colbert favored to win for outstanding variety series

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert leads Kalshi's Outstanding Variety Series Emmy market, but a new voting system means more than one show could take home the award tonight.

The market gives Colbert and his show a 68% chance of winning, and prices the possibility of multiple winners at 28%. Jimmy Kimmel Live! sits at 7%.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.}

Other nominees for the Emmy category include Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, The Daily Show and Saturday Night Live, but all are priced at 2% percent or less.

Both Colbert and Kimmel have also drawn attention over high-profile disputes involving their networks and the Trump administration during the past year.

The New York Times reported that CBS said its decision to end The Late Show last May was “purely a financial decision against a challenging backdrop in late night.”

The cancellation came after Paramount agreed to settle President Trump's lawsuit over the editing of a 60 Minutes interview. Colbert described the settlement as “a big fat bribe” on his late night show. Colbert also frequently criticized Trump in his political monologues.

Colbert also told the Times that he accepted CBS's explanation about the economics of late-night television while acknowledging why some observers questioned the timing.

“It’s possible that two things can be true,” Colbert said. “Broadcast can be in trouble. They cannot monetize because of things like YouTube, because of the competition of streaming. They’ve got the books, and I do not have any desire to debate them over what they say their business model is and how it does not work for them anymore. But less than two years before they called to say it’s over, they were very eager for me to be signed for a long time. So, something changed.”

Kimmel also faced several disputes involving ABC and federal regulators during the past year.

ABC temporarily pulled Jimmy Kimmel Live! from the air in September 2025 following comments Kimmel made about the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. The following April, Kimmel joked about First Lady Melania Trump at the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner having “a glow like an expectant widow” that prompted calls from the White House for his cancellation.

NBC News reported that Kimmel said his recent interview with Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico would air on YouTube rather than ABC because of what he described as threats from the FCC against his show, network and affiliates. The interview subsequently drew millions of views on YouTube.

Some TV critics and analysts believe there’s a good chance that the Emmy category could have two winners.

Entertainment Weekly’s Joyce Eng reported that multiple winners are possible because the Television Academy merged its talk and scripted variety categories and adopted a new voting system.

Under the new area-award system, voters consider each nominee individually and cast a “yes” or “no” vote on whether it deserves an Emmy. Any nominee receiving at least 90% “yes” votes wins, meaning multiple shows could receive the award.

That system means a win for The Late Show would not necessarily prevent another nominee from also receiving the award.

“Voters are supposed to consider each nominee on its own merits,” Eng wrote. “Ideally, they shouldn’t be weighing all five against one another.”

Kalshi traders are also forecasting the winners of other major Emmy categories, including Outstanding Comedy Series and Outstanding Drama Series.

Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay leads the comedy category at 89%, followed by HBO’s Hacks at 12%.

The market for Outstanding Drama Series shows HBO’s The Pitt leading with 95%, followed by Apple TV’s Pluribus at 5% and HBO’s A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms at 1%.

Kalshi markets now predict:

Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source:

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}