Florida State vs. Alabama odds: Crimson Tide look to avenge last year's upset

Florida State travels to No. 10 Alabama on Saturday, September 19, kicking off at 3:30 p.m. ET from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Alabama enters at 2-0, Florida State at 1-1. Kalshi traders have Alabama's win probability at 91% and Florida State at 10%, as of this writing.

Saturday is a rematch of last year's Week 1 upset, when Florida State beat Alabama 31-17 in Tallahassee. Alabama enters off a 45-17 comeback win over Kentucky, while Florida State is coming off a 27-24 loss to SMU after opening with a win over New Mexico State. Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer has framed this year's team as a fresh start following last season's Rose Bowl blowout loss to Indiana.

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Alabama has widened its odds throughout the week, with Kalshi traders now pricing the Crimson Tide's chances at 91% at home. The number reflects a defense that has turned a slow start to the season into seven sacks through two games after recording zero through the same span in 2025.

Alabama is expected to get a boost up front, with right guard Michael Carroll, a Freshman All-American last season, cleared to play after missing the Kentucky game with an injury.

Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack overhauled his front seven after a rash of offseason departures, and the results have shown early: Alabama racked up four sacks in the win over Kentucky, including a strip sack by defensive lineman Devan Thompkins that flipped field position and set up a go-ahead touchdown.

Meanwhile, Florida State enters looking for revenge after last year's upset in Tallahassee, when quarterback Tommy Castellanos led the Seminoles to a 31-17 win. Castellanos is gone, and Florida State pushed SMU to the final minute in Week 1 despite forcing four turnovers of its own, a sign of a team still finding consistency under coach Mike Norvell.

Kalshi traders have Alabama winning by over 20.5 points priced at 47%, as of this writing.

The total is set at 49.5 points, with the over priced at 52% on Kalshi, as of this writing.

Kalshi traders have Alabama at 4% to win the College Football Playoff National Championship, with Florida State under 1%, as of this writing.

Kalshi traders have Alabama at 9% to win the SEC Championship, as of this writing.

Kalshi markets now predict:

When is Florida State vs. Alabama? Saturday, September 19, 2026, at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Where is the game? Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

How can I watch? The game airs on ABC.

What is Kalshi traders' current number? Kalshi traders have Alabama at 91% and Florida State at 10%, as of this writing.

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