Kalshi projects Josh Turek (D) will win the 2026 Iowa Senate race, defeating Ashley Hinson (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Turek's chances at 99%, up from 87% when polls closed. The win flips a Republican-held seat, the first Democratic Senate win in Iowa since 2008, and adds to the new Democratic majority.
These projections do not imply market resolution or that races have been called.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Iowa Senate market, January 2026 to Nov 3, 2026: Republicans opened the year at 66%, and Turek was at 99% at projection.
Hinson, a congresswoman, was the Republican pick from the start for the seat Joni Ernst is leaving. Turek, a state representative, won the Democratic nomination.
Jan 8, 2026: Republicans were at 66% to hold the open seat
Nov 3, 2026: The race opened Election Day dead even at 50%
Polls leaned Turek late: Marist had him up 50% to 42% and the final New York Times/Siena poll called the race effectively tied, while Kalshi's margin market moved to a 0.6-point Turek edge.
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