Kalshi projects Gina Hinojosa (D) will win the 2026 Texas governor race, defeating Greg Abbott (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Hinojosa's chances at 99%, up from 37% when polls closed. The win flips a Republican-held governorship and makes Hinojosa the first Democrat elected governor of Texas since Ann Richards in 1990.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Texas governor market, July 2026 to Nov 3, 2026: Hinojosa was under 10% for most of the summer, and Hinojosa was at 99% at projection.
Abbott, the longest-serving governor in the country, ran for a fourth term against Hinojosa, a state representative from Austin who campaigned alongside Senate nominee James Talarico.
Oct 21, 2026: Abbott fell to 71% as early voting got underway
Polls were closer than the market: final polls from New York Times/Siena (48% to 47%) and AtlasIntel (49% to 48%) had Hinojosa narrowly ahead, while Kalshi's polling average had Abbott up 48.7% to 46.4%.
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